Bracketologists Respond

Over the past several weeks, it has been my contention that if Maryland is able to get to 8-8 in conference play, with a neutral court victory vs. Michigan State, and a home victory vs. Michigan - that the Terps will dance.

I have stated, that I see the road to 8-8 as follows:

Beat VaTech at home Saturday, 2/14 to get to 5-5

Win road games vs. NCST, and UVA…. Win 1 of the 4 remaining games vs. Clemson, UNC, Duke, and Wake.

Real Time RPI ( http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html )continues to show the ACC as the top-rated conference.

Bracket Project ( http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm ) which compiles posted Brackets from across the web, is currently showing 52 total brackets.

Right now, the ACC is projected to get 8 bids, with MD receiving votes.

In the ACC, we know that Carolina, Duke, Wake, Clemson are complete locks… that is 4 bids.

Boston College is 6-4 in conference… and figures to be the 5th bid.

Florida State is 18-5 overall, 5-3 in conference
VaTech is 15-7 overall, 5-3 in conference
MD is 15-8 overall, 4-5 in conference
Miami is 15-8 overall, 4-6 in conference

To me, 3 of these 4 teams are going to make the dance.

Looking a bit deeper at MD's season, you will note the following:

- Wins against Vermont, and American; the respective projected American East and Patriot League Champs
- Neutral court 17pt win vs. Michigan St
- Home win vs. Michigan
- Wins over A-10 doormats George Washington, and Charlotte which are dragging the RPI down
- A 1pt home loss to in-state rival, and projected MEAC Champ Morgan St (MD dropped a 14pt lead)
- A demolishing 41 point loss at Duke
- The 2 point loss at Miami (MD was up 17 at one point)
- The 3 point OT loss at FSU
- Home win vs. Miami

Thoughts:

Michigan is 15-9, 5-6 in the Big 10… if they get to 500, with wins over UCLA, and Duke… they should be in… Right now, you can not project them above MD, when MD has the head to head win.

Miami is on 29 of the 52 brackets, as a consensus 11 seed… they won at Kentucky, they won at BC, and they beat Wake. MD had them down 17 at Miami, and beat the Hurricanes at home… MD beating MSU on a neutral floor, is just as impressive as Miami winning at home vs. Wake.

If you are going to punish MD for getting blown-out vs. Duke, you have to credit MD for the road games vs. Miami, and FSU.

VaTech is on 42 of the 52 brackets as a consensus 10 seed. The Hokies play GaTech Wed, before coming to MD Saturday. Assuming VaTech beats GaTech, but loses to MD… VaTech would be 1 game ahead in the ACC, but will have lost the head to head match-up.

Lastly, in the compiled 52 Brackets, the Big East (currently the 3rd ranked conference) is projected to get 8 bids, with Providence in the next 4 out, and Notre Dame and Cincinnati receiving votes.

If MD winds up head to head vs. teams in the Big East, MD should get the nod for being from the stronger conference.
The Terps are the only team in the country that will face Duke, and UNC twice a piece.

Baltimore Sports and Life posed these thoughts to several of the Bracketologists used on Bracket Project, and asked the following:

BSL - "Regardless, of how likely you find MD to get to 8 conference wins… if they do, do you believe they would make the NCAAT?"

Several responses were received, including:

Ryan Israelsen at RPI Forecast ( http://rpiforecast.com/ ) who says:

"I think MD would have to beat out Va. Tech for that 8th spot. Beating them in a few days would go a long way towards that goal. I think if things go as expected, Miami and Florida State will probably get bids regardless, but what do I know."

The Co-Editor of the site - Rush the Court ( http://rushthecourt.wordpress.com/ ) - , who only wanted to be identified as 'nvr1938', stated the following:

"If Maryland gets to 8-8, wins a game against the Big 4 in the ACC (particularly UNC or Duke), and wins a game in the ACC tourney I think they would get in."

Shelby N. Mast the Creator of Bracket WAG ( http://www.bracketwag.com ) pointed out the need for the Mid-Majors powers to win their conference tournaments:

"Maryland has a tough road to get there and needs LOTS of help - ie - Davidson, Butler, Siena all must win their conf tourneys - no surprises from other tourneys. It's not impossible for them to make it, but will be tough."

The owner of Basketball Predictions ( http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/ ) says:

"I would agree that an 8-8 Maryland team would probably make the Tournament if they can win at least one ACC tournament game, but I don't think Maryland will get than 8th win. Looking at their schedule, and the way they've been playing lately, I just don't see them getting there.I encourage you to read my blog - you can do a search for Maryland to see where I've discussed them specifically. But to repeat myself, while I don't think Maryland will make the Tournament, I do agree that an 8-8 will probably be sufficient for just about any ACC team to make the Tournament because of the strength of the conference."

The operators of Bracketology 101 ( http://bracketology101.blogspot.com/ ) disagree. Owner Chris Kulenych states:

"You broke down Terps' chances really well. Right now, though, we disagree with you that the ACC is going to get 8 bids. A lot would have to break right - like 2 bubble teams making the ACC tourney semis - for the league to get 8 teams in. For all of those bubble teams, Maryland included, the magic number is 9. They have to get to 9-7 to feel good about their chances on Selection Sunday, and given Maryland's upcoming schedule, it's going to be tough for them to get to 9. If they do, that will likely mean that they had won two out of their four games with Clemson, Duke, UNC, and Wake and they'll probably get a bid. If they finish 8-8, and win just one of those games, their good OOC resume might not be enough, and they might have to make a deep run in the ACC tourney to get a bid. First things first, Maryland needs to beat VT at home on Saturday. A loss to the Hokies will knock the Terps off the bubble for the time being and could very well cripple their at-large hopes. "

Warren Nolan of Fully Sports.Com (http://www.fullysports.com/basketball/2009/projection) says:

"I think 12 losses is the most they can have and get in. Beat VT, UVA, NCST and one of Clemson, UNC, Duke, and Wake. Lose a game in the ACC tournament,but not in the 1st round. At 21-12, they would have a good argument anything less probably will not be enough."

David Mihm of Bracketography.com ( http://www.bracketography.com/ ) stated:

"I agree that if the Terps get to 8-8 they'll be in pretty good shape, as I said in my first Bubble Breakdown yesterday. The ACC is a better league than people realized at the start of the year (as is the Big Ten--funny how that Challenge worked out!)."

Karl Gustafson of College Sports-fans.com ( www.collegesports-fans.com/ncaa-tournament/bracket-projections/) says:

"Absolutely, if Maryland goes .500 in the ACC and wins a game or two in the ACC tournament They should be in. I would have them in my bracket come selection Sunday."