A few questions with Mr. Tom Tango – Co-Author 'The Book Playing the Percentages in Baseball'

Mr. Tango is one of Baseball’s most respected sabermetric analysts.

He is the Co-Author of, “The Book – Playing the Percentages in Baseball.”

Additional information on The Book can be found at: http://www.insidethebook.com/

Mr. Tango’s personal website can be found at: http://www.tangotiger.net/
Mr. Tango was also recently named a consultant for the Seattle Mariners.Mr. Tango recently answered a few questions from Baltimore Sports and Life.

BSL – “BSL recently projected the Orioles everyday lineup in the linked post below:

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/02/baltimore-sports-and-life-projects.html

Are there any projections here you believe to be out of scale? Any projections where you believe I will be positively, or negatively surprised with?”

Tom Tango – “I will direct you to the Marcel, Chone, PECOTA, and ZiPS forecasts. I don't have any additional insights I can offer beyond what those 4 say.”

EDIT for BSL Readers:

Marcels (Tom Tango, The Book)

CHONE (Sean Smith, The Hardball Times, Baseball Projections)
http://www.baseballprojection.com/BAL2009.htm
http://www.baseballprojection.com/BAL2009p.htm

PECOTA Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (Baseball Prospectus)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/team_BAL.php

ZIPS (Baseball Think Factory)
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2009_zips_projections_baltimore_orioles/

BSL – “Roberts and the Orioles have agreed to a 4year $40M dollar deal...knowing he turns 32 in October, do you believe Roberts is likely to be productive during the duration of the contract?"

Tom Tango – “He doesn't have to be productive for all 4 years. He just has to deliver 40MM of performance over the next 4 years, whether it all happens in the first 2 or last 3 or first year or whatever.”


BSL – “Recently, you introduced the terms 'Batting Assists,' and 'Batting Blocks.'
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/introducing_batting_assists_and_batting_blocks/

Batting Assists being the number of times that batter moved a runner over who will eventually score, but did not get for an RBI.

Batting Blocks being what occurs when a batter does not advance a runner even one base, or worse gets him doubled off.

In 2008 Morneau lead the league in Batting Assists, and Mauer lead the league in the ratio between Assists and Blocks.

Is there anything that leads you to believe the style of play of the Twins, and Gardenhire impact this?”

Tom Tango – “I would not read anything into the fact that Morneau and Mauer are at the top other than they are two great hitters.

For Mauer especially, since he's not a power hitter, this stat is biased toward that kind of hitter.

After all, driving in a runner precludes you from assisting on that runner.”


BSL – “The O's figure to keep Wieters in the minors until mid-to-late April to gain an additional year of service-time to his contract.

Is there any viable reason to keep him in the minors past that point?”
(Idea of Super 2 status)

Tom Tango – “If a guy is ready, teams will keep players down to prevent them from getting Super 2 status, or getting the extra year of free agency clock.

Longoria, Shields, Upton, all with the Rays, are prime examples. Whether this was pure coincidence, or actual motivation on the part of the Rays, I don't know.”


BSL – “The O’s used a 13 man pitching staff for large portions of the 2008 season, and have suggested they might do that again in 2009.

In general-terms, can the 13th man on a pitching staff, be more useful than the 4th man on the bench?”


Tom Tango – “In general terms, the answer is no.”