The Baltimore Orioles have until Midnight tonight, to sign their 2010 1st round pick (and 3rd selection overall) HS SS Manny Machado.
O's Amateur Scouting Director Joe Jordan is quoted in the Baltimore Sun today as stating he believes the negotiations will become significant this afternoon.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-notebook-0816-20100815,0,5977542.story
Rather clearly the O's would haved liked to have had Machado signed earlier, but Machado's Agent Scott Boras prefers to negotiate with the added deadline pressure.
The Orioles will make a significant effort to sign Machado, and eventually offer somewhere between $5 to $6.5M. Machado will have to decide if he wants to turn down that money to go to Junior College and reenter the draft next-year. That is an awful lot of money to turn down, especially when he does not figure to be able to raise his profile any further.
I think Machado signs tonight, with the news coming out right before or right after Midnight. If I am wrong, it would be a disappointment but life would move on. The O's would gain a 1st-round pick in next year's draft that would be a Top 5 selection as compensation for not signing him. Based off their likely season results for this year, they would have two Top 5 picks in '11. There is some solace to take from that.
Let us say that Machado signs for $6M. The Orioles obviously liked the ceiling of Manny Machado better than the ceiling of Christian Colon. The O’s were certainly not alone in this estimation, as many (nearly all) independent 3rd-party talent evaluators had Machado ranked higher in a comparison between the two. Still Colon appeared on many boards as a Top 10 talent in his own right, and was drafted 4th overall by the Kansas City Royals, signing for $2.75M. If it takes $6M to sign Machado, was the talent difference between the two worth that $3.25M difference?
Would the difference in the signing prices of Machado vs. Colon have allowed for further 'over-slot' picks?
If Machado is not signed, and the O's gain the two Top 5 picks in the '11 draft - do the O's value that higher than any over-slot that they may have obtained in-conjunction with drafting Colon?
Showing posts with label MLB Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLB Draft. Show all posts
Monday, August 16, 2010
Monday, June 7, 2010
Thoughts on O's selection of Machado
With the 3rd overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft, the O's have selected HS SS Manny Machado.
Probably unfairly, there are instantaneously positive and negative reviews of the selection to be found.
Critiquing draft-selections within the moment is basically a fruitless endeavor, especially in Baseball. Obviously the selections are all about potential future production, and multiple years and professional experience is required before a draft can be legitimately reviewed.
That said, the selection of Machado over College SS Christian Colon (who went 4th overall to Kansas City) is something that will be watched intently in the years to follow.
The O's had their choice of the two, and clearly decided they projected-out Machado as the better talent. I think the likely argument that existed within the O's Scouting Department was encapsulated by Harold Reynolds, and John Hart of the MLB Network.
Reynolds stated on the air that he had reviewed extensive tape of Machado, and graded him as the best talent overall in the draft, throwing out the seemingly inevitable Alex Rodriguez comparison. Hart talked about the polish of Colon, and compared him to Placido Polanco. To me the most interesting comment came from Hart as he said that Kansas City had selected a player that would play, and perform in the Majors.
Similar to last-year, I respect Joe Jordan and the O's for selecting the player they identified as the best talent. Unlike last-year with Hobgood, Machado was a selection that surprised nobody, and his supporters are numerous. Still, I think that the comments from Hart were important to make.
As the O's are at a financial disadvantage against the Yankees, and Red Sox, I am of the opinion that the O's logically have less room for misses in the draft (also true with FA selections). If you come from that starting point, you should also believe in taking the player best likely to reach their potential. I think Colon (who had already shown an ability to exceed at a higher-level) is a better bet to reach his potential vs. Machado; even if Machado potentially has the higher overall ceiling.
The decision the O's have made is that for them to beat their division foes, they need the best overall talent - and they graded Machado as the better player. It is easy to understand their rationale, now it is up to the O's to get him signed as quickly as possible and added to the system. Once added to the system, their Player Development staff has to get him acclimated and primed to produce.
For an idea of how Machado might advance through the O's system, I would look at the 1st overall selection of the 2008 Draft - SS Tim Beckham. Tampa was able to get Beckham signed quick enough after the 2008 Draft, that Beckham received a total of 183 professional at-bats that Summer in the Appalachian League (same as Bluefield with the O's).
In 2009 Beckham started in the South Atlantic League (same as Delmarva with the O's). In 491 at-bats at that level, Beckham had a .717 OPS. This included 116 K's vs 34 walks.
In 2010, Beckham has advanced to the Florida State League (High A, same as Frederick with the O's). The 20-year old is scuffling a bit with a .210 average in 167 at-bats. He is showing some power with 13 extra-base hits.
It would be foolish to say that Machado will follow the exact same path as Beckham, but I do believe it provides a certain level of expectation. If the O's can get him signed quick enough, he can end this Summer gaining valuable experience with Bluefield or Aberdeen. To start 2011, he will likely be heading to Delmarva, with the hope of promotion to Frederick in 2012. If Machado advances to Bowie the following-year, he would likely be a 1/2 season of production away from possible promotion to Baltimore. If everything goes great, you are looking at a mid-2013 arrival for Machado. If there are any snags, you could be looking at some-time in 2014.
In comparison, you would expect Colon to follow a path more similar to the best College SS from the 2009 Draft - Grant Green. Green was selected 13th overall last year with Oakland and signed in-time to just play 5 games with Stockton (Class A, same as Frederick). Returning to Stockton this year, Green has a .772 OPS, with a .308 average, 20 extra-base hits in 240 at-bats.
With a .489 average in his last 10 games, Green is seemingly on the verge of a promotion to AA. If he tore-up AA in the 2nd-half, who knows he could even be a ML September call-up, or in position to make the A's by next Spring. At a minimum, it is not hard to picture Green reaching the Majors by this time next-season.
Similarly, I could see Colon splitting 2011 at the High A, and AA levels and being positioned to make his big-league debut in late 2011 or by mid-season 2012.
When you lay it out like that, you see some of the decisions and choices the O's were forced with tonight. It will be interesting to see how this progresses in the years to come.
Below are links to some Scouting Reports on Machado:
Draft America.com
http://www.draftamerica.com/mlb-draft.php#p3
PNR Scouting
http://pnrscouting.com/rankings_2010_draftboard_shortstop.html
http://pnrscouting.com/scoutingreports_2010_machadoma.html
Baseball Intellect
http://www.baseball-intellect.com/2010-draft-scouting-manny-machado/
Probably unfairly, there are instantaneously positive and negative reviews of the selection to be found.
Critiquing draft-selections within the moment is basically a fruitless endeavor, especially in Baseball. Obviously the selections are all about potential future production, and multiple years and professional experience is required before a draft can be legitimately reviewed.
That said, the selection of Machado over College SS Christian Colon (who went 4th overall to Kansas City) is something that will be watched intently in the years to follow.
The O's had their choice of the two, and clearly decided they projected-out Machado as the better talent. I think the likely argument that existed within the O's Scouting Department was encapsulated by Harold Reynolds, and John Hart of the MLB Network.
Reynolds stated on the air that he had reviewed extensive tape of Machado, and graded him as the best talent overall in the draft, throwing out the seemingly inevitable Alex Rodriguez comparison. Hart talked about the polish of Colon, and compared him to Placido Polanco. To me the most interesting comment came from Hart as he said that Kansas City had selected a player that would play, and perform in the Majors.
Similar to last-year, I respect Joe Jordan and the O's for selecting the player they identified as the best talent. Unlike last-year with Hobgood, Machado was a selection that surprised nobody, and his supporters are numerous. Still, I think that the comments from Hart were important to make.
As the O's are at a financial disadvantage against the Yankees, and Red Sox, I am of the opinion that the O's logically have less room for misses in the draft (also true with FA selections). If you come from that starting point, you should also believe in taking the player best likely to reach their potential. I think Colon (who had already shown an ability to exceed at a higher-level) is a better bet to reach his potential vs. Machado; even if Machado potentially has the higher overall ceiling.
The decision the O's have made is that for them to beat their division foes, they need the best overall talent - and they graded Machado as the better player. It is easy to understand their rationale, now it is up to the O's to get him signed as quickly as possible and added to the system. Once added to the system, their Player Development staff has to get him acclimated and primed to produce.
For an idea of how Machado might advance through the O's system, I would look at the 1st overall selection of the 2008 Draft - SS Tim Beckham. Tampa was able to get Beckham signed quick enough after the 2008 Draft, that Beckham received a total of 183 professional at-bats that Summer in the Appalachian League (same as Bluefield with the O's).
In 2009 Beckham started in the South Atlantic League (same as Delmarva with the O's). In 491 at-bats at that level, Beckham had a .717 OPS. This included 116 K's vs 34 walks.
In 2010, Beckham has advanced to the Florida State League (High A, same as Frederick with the O's). The 20-year old is scuffling a bit with a .210 average in 167 at-bats. He is showing some power with 13 extra-base hits.
It would be foolish to say that Machado will follow the exact same path as Beckham, but I do believe it provides a certain level of expectation. If the O's can get him signed quick enough, he can end this Summer gaining valuable experience with Bluefield or Aberdeen. To start 2011, he will likely be heading to Delmarva, with the hope of promotion to Frederick in 2012. If Machado advances to Bowie the following-year, he would likely be a 1/2 season of production away from possible promotion to Baltimore. If everything goes great, you are looking at a mid-2013 arrival for Machado. If there are any snags, you could be looking at some-time in 2014.
In comparison, you would expect Colon to follow a path more similar to the best College SS from the 2009 Draft - Grant Green. Green was selected 13th overall last year with Oakland and signed in-time to just play 5 games with Stockton (Class A, same as Frederick). Returning to Stockton this year, Green has a .772 OPS, with a .308 average, 20 extra-base hits in 240 at-bats.
With a .489 average in his last 10 games, Green is seemingly on the verge of a promotion to AA. If he tore-up AA in the 2nd-half, who knows he could even be a ML September call-up, or in position to make the A's by next Spring. At a minimum, it is not hard to picture Green reaching the Majors by this time next-season.
Similarly, I could see Colon splitting 2011 at the High A, and AA levels and being positioned to make his big-league debut in late 2011 or by mid-season 2012.
When you lay it out like that, you see some of the decisions and choices the O's were forced with tonight. It will be interesting to see how this progresses in the years to come.
Below are links to some Scouting Reports on Machado:
Draft America.com
http://www.draftamerica.com/mlb-draft.php#p3
PNR Scouting
http://pnrscouting.com/rankings_2010_draftboard_shortstop.html
http://pnrscouting.com/scoutingreports_2010_machadoma.html
Baseball Intellect
http://www.baseball-intellect.com/2010-draft-scouting-manny-machado/
MLB Draft tonight
The Baltimore Orioles have the 3rd overall pick in the 1st-round of the Amateur Draft tonight.
One week ago, the consensus across the board was that the O's would be in position to take Jameson Taillon.
http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2010/06/mlb-mock-drafts.html
It now appears that Tailion could go 2nd overall to Pittsburgh. If that occurs, Orioles Amateur Scouting Director Joe Jordan was quoted in The Baltimore Sun as stating the likely selection will be HS SS Manny Machado.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/2010/06/feeling_the_draft.html
If the Pirates do take Tailion, I think O's fans should also have the names of SS Christian Colon, and LHP Chris Sale in-mind as possibilities.
Here are a couple of scouting reports on Machado, Colon, and Sale:
Machado:
Draft America.com
http://www.draftamerica.com/mlb-draft.php#p3
Preseason Review:
"Manny Machado is a lean and athletic shortstop, hailing from Brito High School in Miami. Defensively Machado is somewhat like collegian Christian Colon, in that neither project to have great range as pro's... but both have very good instincts, are graceful in their footwork and mechanics, employ soft hands and good arms, and should be able to stick and be successful big league shortstops.
Offensively, Machado has no problem hitting a good fastball, and making strong consistent contact. He uses an open-stance and while he 'wraps' his bat, he has good bat speed and leverage, with some lift in his swing. Many scouts feel he'll have solid to above-average power, and coupled with outstanding defensive abilities at a prime position, Machado could vault into the Top 10 of the coming draft."
Update 6/2/10: "All Machado has done this year is fulfill all expectations of him, by- well, everyone. At just three months older than Bryce Harper, the youngster has been compared -somewhat unfairly- to another former mega-prospect, and fellow South Florida prep star shortstop-- Alex Rodriguez. Machado has truly grown, both physically, defensively and at bat. He'll most likely be taken as high as pick two, and no later than pick four. Some scouts have concerns that Machado will outgrow short and slide to third, but may not have the prototypical power for the position. Regardless, he projects as a well-above-average hitter and he'll await the wise team that calls his name come draft day."
2010 Stats: 86 AB's, .639 AVG, 27 2B, 5 3B, 12 HR, 56 RBI, 17 SB
PNR Scouting
http://pnrscouting.com/rankings_2010_draftboard_shortstop.html
http://pnrscouting.com/scoutingreports_2010_machadoma.html/scoutingreports_2010_machadoma.html
5/5/2010 -- (Update by Nick James) "Machado has seen his stock bump over the past six months, with public perception moving towards him as the clear-cut top prep positional talent by a fair amount. While he is undoubtedly talented, and possesses a nice blend of current skillset and future projection, I am slightly less optimistic than is Jesse that he'll stick at SS once he fills-in. Also, while the bat speed is excellent, I am not sold on him being ahead of Nick Castellanos, SS/3B, Archbishop McCarthy HS (Fla.) or Josh Sale, OF, Bishop Blanchet HS (Wa.) in terms of offense package at the prep ranks. I'm less bullish on the future hit/power rating -- I'd probably slap a 50/55 on each. With the right organization, Machado's game could develop at an impressive rate, but there is enough fine-tuning to come for me to place him slightly lower on the draft board than I've seen among most national draft publications. He currently ranks #11 on the PnR Mid-Season Top 300, ahead of Castellanos and Sale due to his potential to stick at short and provide more defensive value than the aforementioned duo (giving more cushion if the bat doesn't develop)."
Colon:
MLB Bonus Baby
http://mlbbonusbaby.com
"Colon may have broken his leg at the end of Team USA’s season, but that was only after he had established himself as the best all-around position player in the 2010 college class. He’s a good fielder with good instincts, a good hitter, and there’s really nothing he’s bad at. People will whine about his lack of dazzling tools, but Colon’s got a solid toolset with a solid skillset with great makeup, and there’s no reason to think he can’t be an above-average Major League shortstop in relatively short order. Assuming he recovers fully from the broken leg, he’s a top ten pick with a good spring."
PNR Scouting
http://pnrscouting.com/scoutingreports_2010_colonch.html
"Colon is a plus defender with solid arm strength and projects to stick at the six-spot as a pro. That alone would get him plenty of attention as a draft-eligible shortstop. Adding to his value is a contact oriented stroke that could produce a notch above-average hit tool and gap-to-gap pop with perhaps high-single to low-double-digit homerun power. Always a solid defender, he took a nice step forward in 2009 at Fullerton, impressing at the plate. He posted a .357/.442/.529 line and a 1:1 SO:BB ratio while batting at the top of the order, solidifying himself as the lead-off hitter by the end of the season. He has spent 2010 in the same role, and after a slow start (primarily due to his injury-related lay-off over the winter -- see updates below). He has worked his slash line up to a solid .335/.441/.623, and has continued his elite strikezone command with 26 BB to just 10 SO in almost 190 PA. Colon has a high floor with some of the best plate discipline and hitting approaches in the class. He should be one of the first college bats selected and is a good bet to be off the board by the middle of the 1st Round."
Projected Position: SS/2B
Suggested Draft Slot: Early- to Mid-1st Round
Updates:
5/5/2010 -- "Colon has progressed nicely in 2010. In the games I've seen, the arm-strength again looks solid average to a tick above, which could play at short at the pro ranks. His range is still just average, but the good news is it doesn't appear to have fallen-off after the broken leg. He is a steady defender on the routine plays and still flashes plus hands. Offensively, Colon has shown more power than expected this year, which is interesting. While he still profiles as a gap-to-gap bat, perhaps there is some chance for him to see his power tool grow as he tightens-up his physique."
Sale:
Perfect Game USA / David Rawnsley (5/13)
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=4742
"The Orioles should learn a lesson from the 2008 draft here. I wrote at that point that Tampa Bay would be much better served picking college lefthander Brian Matusz over high-school shortstop Tim Beckham with the first pick. Matusz fell to the Orioles at No. 4, and is now already in their starting rotation and one of the most-prized young arms in the game, while Beckham is hitting below .150 in the Florida State League. Sale (8-0, 1.98, 82 IP/12 BB/114 SO) is a comparable talent to Matusz and could have a similar path to a big-league starting rotation."
One week ago, the consensus across the board was that the O's would be in position to take Jameson Taillon.
http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2010/06/mlb-mock-drafts.html
It now appears that Tailion could go 2nd overall to Pittsburgh. If that occurs, Orioles Amateur Scouting Director Joe Jordan was quoted in The Baltimore Sun as stating the likely selection will be HS SS Manny Machado.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/2010/06/feeling_the_draft.html
If the Pirates do take Tailion, I think O's fans should also have the names of SS Christian Colon, and LHP Chris Sale in-mind as possibilities.
Here are a couple of scouting reports on Machado, Colon, and Sale:
Machado:
Draft America.com
http://www.draftamerica.com/mlb-draft.php#p3
Preseason Review:
"Manny Machado is a lean and athletic shortstop, hailing from Brito High School in Miami. Defensively Machado is somewhat like collegian Christian Colon, in that neither project to have great range as pro's... but both have very good instincts, are graceful in their footwork and mechanics, employ soft hands and good arms, and should be able to stick and be successful big league shortstops.
Offensively, Machado has no problem hitting a good fastball, and making strong consistent contact. He uses an open-stance and while he 'wraps' his bat, he has good bat speed and leverage, with some lift in his swing. Many scouts feel he'll have solid to above-average power, and coupled with outstanding defensive abilities at a prime position, Machado could vault into the Top 10 of the coming draft."
Update 6/2/10: "All Machado has done this year is fulfill all expectations of him, by- well, everyone. At just three months older than Bryce Harper, the youngster has been compared -somewhat unfairly- to another former mega-prospect, and fellow South Florida prep star shortstop-- Alex Rodriguez. Machado has truly grown, both physically, defensively and at bat. He'll most likely be taken as high as pick two, and no later than pick four. Some scouts have concerns that Machado will outgrow short and slide to third, but may not have the prototypical power for the position. Regardless, he projects as a well-above-average hitter and he'll await the wise team that calls his name come draft day."
2010 Stats: 86 AB's, .639 AVG, 27 2B, 5 3B, 12 HR, 56 RBI, 17 SB
PNR Scouting
http://pnrscouting.com/rankings_2010_draftboard_shortstop.html
http://pnrscouting.com/scoutingreports_2010_machadoma.html/scoutingreports_2010_machadoma.html
5/5/2010 -- (Update by Nick James) "Machado has seen his stock bump over the past six months, with public perception moving towards him as the clear-cut top prep positional talent by a fair amount. While he is undoubtedly talented, and possesses a nice blend of current skillset and future projection, I am slightly less optimistic than is Jesse that he'll stick at SS once he fills-in. Also, while the bat speed is excellent, I am not sold on him being ahead of Nick Castellanos, SS/3B, Archbishop McCarthy HS (Fla.) or Josh Sale, OF, Bishop Blanchet HS (Wa.) in terms of offense package at the prep ranks. I'm less bullish on the future hit/power rating -- I'd probably slap a 50/55 on each. With the right organization, Machado's game could develop at an impressive rate, but there is enough fine-tuning to come for me to place him slightly lower on the draft board than I've seen among most national draft publications. He currently ranks #11 on the PnR Mid-Season Top 300, ahead of Castellanos and Sale due to his potential to stick at short and provide more defensive value than the aforementioned duo (giving more cushion if the bat doesn't develop)."
Colon:
MLB Bonus Baby
http://mlbbonusbaby.com
"Colon may have broken his leg at the end of Team USA’s season, but that was only after he had established himself as the best all-around position player in the 2010 college class. He’s a good fielder with good instincts, a good hitter, and there’s really nothing he’s bad at. People will whine about his lack of dazzling tools, but Colon’s got a solid toolset with a solid skillset with great makeup, and there’s no reason to think he can’t be an above-average Major League shortstop in relatively short order. Assuming he recovers fully from the broken leg, he’s a top ten pick with a good spring."
PNR Scouting
http://pnrscouting.com/scoutingreports_2010_colonch.html
"Colon is a plus defender with solid arm strength and projects to stick at the six-spot as a pro. That alone would get him plenty of attention as a draft-eligible shortstop. Adding to his value is a contact oriented stroke that could produce a notch above-average hit tool and gap-to-gap pop with perhaps high-single to low-double-digit homerun power. Always a solid defender, he took a nice step forward in 2009 at Fullerton, impressing at the plate. He posted a .357/.442/.529 line and a 1:1 SO:BB ratio while batting at the top of the order, solidifying himself as the lead-off hitter by the end of the season. He has spent 2010 in the same role, and after a slow start (primarily due to his injury-related lay-off over the winter -- see updates below). He has worked his slash line up to a solid .335/.441/.623, and has continued his elite strikezone command with 26 BB to just 10 SO in almost 190 PA. Colon has a high floor with some of the best plate discipline and hitting approaches in the class. He should be one of the first college bats selected and is a good bet to be off the board by the middle of the 1st Round."
Projected Position: SS/2B
Suggested Draft Slot: Early- to Mid-1st Round
Updates:
5/5/2010 -- "Colon has progressed nicely in 2010. In the games I've seen, the arm-strength again looks solid average to a tick above, which could play at short at the pro ranks. His range is still just average, but the good news is it doesn't appear to have fallen-off after the broken leg. He is a steady defender on the routine plays and still flashes plus hands. Offensively, Colon has shown more power than expected this year, which is interesting. While he still profiles as a gap-to-gap bat, perhaps there is some chance for him to see his power tool grow as he tightens-up his physique."
Sale:
Perfect Game USA / David Rawnsley (5/13)
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=4742
"The Orioles should learn a lesson from the 2008 draft here. I wrote at that point that Tampa Bay would be much better served picking college lefthander Brian Matusz over high-school shortstop Tim Beckham with the first pick. Matusz fell to the Orioles at No. 4, and is now already in their starting rotation and one of the most-prized young arms in the game, while Beckham is hitting below .150 in the Florida State League. Sale (8-0, 1.98, 82 IP/12 BB/114 SO) is a comparable talent to Matusz and could have a similar path to a big-league starting rotation."
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
MLB Mock Drafts
We are less than a week away from the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft. Pretty much a clear consensus that Jameson Taillon will be available to the O's, and will be the selection at 3rd overall.
With this type of consensus being seen on all of the sites, it breeds a bit of expectation. It will be interesting seeing the reaction of Oriole fans if Amateur Scouting Director Joe Jordan elects to go another way.
Yahoo / Rivals.com (6/1)
http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1088968
Jameson Taillon
MLB Fanhouse (5/31)
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/05/31/mock-draft-3-0-first-round-update/
Taillon
Keith Law - ESPN Insider (5/31)
Taillon
5ToolTalk.com (5/30)
http://5tooltalk.com/mockdraft.html
Taillon
Baseball America / Jim Callis (5/28)
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=2199
Taillon
MLB.com / Jonathan Mayo (5/26)
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100526&content_id=10448720
Taillon
Perfect Game USA / Andy Seiler (5/25)
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=4781
Taillon
Perfect Game USA / David Rawnsley (5/13)
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=4742
Chris Sale
"The Orioles should learn a lesson from the 2008 draft here. I wrote at that point that Tampa Bay would be much better served picking college lefthander Brian Matusz over high-school shortstop Tim Beckham with the first pick. Matusz fell to the Orioles at No. 4, and is now already in their starting rotation and one of the most-prized young arms in the game, while Beckham is hitting below .150 in the Florida State League. Sale (8-0, 1.98, 82 IP/12 BB/114 SO) is a comparable talent to Matusz and could have a similar path to a big-league starting rotation."
With this type of consensus being seen on all of the sites, it breeds a bit of expectation. It will be interesting seeing the reaction of Oriole fans if Amateur Scouting Director Joe Jordan elects to go another way.
Yahoo / Rivals.com (6/1)
http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1088968
Jameson Taillon
MLB Fanhouse (5/31)
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/05/31/mock-draft-3-0-first-round-update/
Taillon
Keith Law - ESPN Insider (5/31)
Taillon
5ToolTalk.com (5/30)
http://5tooltalk.com/mockdraft.html
Taillon
Baseball America / Jim Callis (5/28)
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=2199
Taillon
MLB.com / Jonathan Mayo (5/26)
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100526&content_id=10448720
Taillon
Perfect Game USA / Andy Seiler (5/25)
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=4781
Taillon
Perfect Game USA / David Rawnsley (5/13)
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=4742
Chris Sale
"The Orioles should learn a lesson from the 2008 draft here. I wrote at that point that Tampa Bay would be much better served picking college lefthander Brian Matusz over high-school shortstop Tim Beckham with the first pick. Matusz fell to the Orioles at No. 4, and is now already in their starting rotation and one of the most-prized young arms in the game, while Beckham is hitting below .150 in the Florida State League. Sale (8-0, 1.98, 82 IP/12 BB/114 SO) is a comparable talent to Matusz and could have a similar path to a big-league starting rotation."
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Hobgood vs. Green
As the 2010 MLB Draft approaches, I thought it would be interesting to look back a year with the O's 1st round selection.
As we all know, the Orioles selected HS RHP Matt Hobgood. At the time, I was directly advocating the selection of College SS Grant Green.
Green is in High A Ball and has a very limited .672 OPS in 191 at-bats (.267 batting average, 2 homers, 9 doubles, 16 rbi, 12 walks, 46 k's) While he has a .960 OPS against LHP (56 at-bats), he has a horrific .553 OPS against RHP (135 at-bats).
Hobgood is in Low A Ball with Delmarva.
He has made 9 starts and is 2-4, with a 5.05 era. In 46.1 innings, he has allowed 44 hits, 24 walks, with 28 k's. He is getting a large amount of grounders, and holding hitters to a .251 batting average.
Of his 9 starts he has only pitched at-least 6 innings twice, and in his last four starts has not gone longer than 5 innings.
I'll be very interested to see the progression of these two in the years to come, because I believe it illustrates a philosophical question for the O's. As the O's get ready to make their 2010 selection we will again hear the popular refrain of the baseball draft being a roll of the dice, and how you can not draft for need. For the most part I agree with that line of thinking. I understand that Baseball is not the NFL, or the NBA.
I also understand that it is Tampa that is running away with the AL East at the moment, but that does not mean the financial disparities of the Yankees, and Boston can be ignored either. As those two division foes have significantly more resources to be spending, they do not have to be as accurate with their selections as Baltimore. Or explained inversely, if NY and the RedSox bring guns to a fight, and the O's bring a knife - the O's have to be even more precise with their 'weapon.'
So while I understand that Baseball is not the NFL, or the NBA, I do think the O's will always have to be cognizant of the division they plan in. To me, that means that if the O's have two players closely ranked on their board, they should draft the player more likely to reach his ceiling - even if that player has a slightly lower ceiling.
Green is performing below my expectations for him. Still, he could turn it on during the remainder of this season and force his way to AA to begin 2011. If he were in the O's organization, and started next-year at Bowie; he could be positioned for a jump to the bigs with 1/2 a season of production.
While Hobgood can also turn it on, and position himself to start 2011 at Frederick, his path to the Majors is far more distant. While he of course has age in his favor (DOB 8/3/90 vs.. 9/27/87 for Green), I would still feel better with Green in the system.
The O's can simply not afford to miss with their selections. Green may never progress as expected, and he might have been graded to have a slightly lower ceiling vs.. Hobgood; but I maintain of the two he is more likely to reach his potential. He certainly would be the player more likely to help the O's in the near-term.
As we all know, the Orioles selected HS RHP Matt Hobgood. At the time, I was directly advocating the selection of College SS Grant Green.
Green is in High A Ball and has a very limited .672 OPS in 191 at-bats (.267 batting average, 2 homers, 9 doubles, 16 rbi, 12 walks, 46 k's) While he has a .960 OPS against LHP (56 at-bats), he has a horrific .553 OPS against RHP (135 at-bats).
Hobgood is in Low A Ball with Delmarva.
He has made 9 starts and is 2-4, with a 5.05 era. In 46.1 innings, he has allowed 44 hits, 24 walks, with 28 k's. He is getting a large amount of grounders, and holding hitters to a .251 batting average.
Of his 9 starts he has only pitched at-least 6 innings twice, and in his last four starts has not gone longer than 5 innings.
I'll be very interested to see the progression of these two in the years to come, because I believe it illustrates a philosophical question for the O's. As the O's get ready to make their 2010 selection we will again hear the popular refrain of the baseball draft being a roll of the dice, and how you can not draft for need. For the most part I agree with that line of thinking. I understand that Baseball is not the NFL, or the NBA.
I also understand that it is Tampa that is running away with the AL East at the moment, but that does not mean the financial disparities of the Yankees, and Boston can be ignored either. As those two division foes have significantly more resources to be spending, they do not have to be as accurate with their selections as Baltimore. Or explained inversely, if NY and the RedSox bring guns to a fight, and the O's bring a knife - the O's have to be even more precise with their 'weapon.'
So while I understand that Baseball is not the NFL, or the NBA, I do think the O's will always have to be cognizant of the division they plan in. To me, that means that if the O's have two players closely ranked on their board, they should draft the player more likely to reach his ceiling - even if that player has a slightly lower ceiling.
Green is performing below my expectations for him. Still, he could turn it on during the remainder of this season and force his way to AA to begin 2011. If he were in the O's organization, and started next-year at Bowie; he could be positioned for a jump to the bigs with 1/2 a season of production.
While Hobgood can also turn it on, and position himself to start 2011 at Frederick, his path to the Majors is far more distant. While he of course has age in his favor (DOB 8/3/90 vs.. 9/27/87 for Green), I would still feel better with Green in the system.
The O's can simply not afford to miss with their selections. Green may never progress as expected, and he might have been graded to have a slightly lower ceiling vs.. Hobgood; but I maintain of the two he is more likely to reach his potential. He certainly would be the player more likely to help the O's in the near-term.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Yahoo / Rivals MLB Mock Draft
Here is a link to a recent Yahoo / Rivals MLB Mock Draft, which has the Orioles selecting HS Pitcher Jameson Taillon.
Yahoo / Rivals Mock Draft
http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1081616
Yahoo / Rivals College Top 50
http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=1169&CID=1081395
Yahoo / Rivals HS Top 50
http://rivals.yahoo.com/highschool/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2627
PNR Scouting on Taillon
http://pnrscouting.com/scoutingreports_2010_taillonja.html
Draft America on Tailon
http://www.draftamerica.com/mlb-draft-prospects.php
Yahoo / Rivals Mock Draft
http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1081616
Yahoo / Rivals College Top 50
http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=1169&CID=1081395
Yahoo / Rivals HS Top 50
http://rivals.yahoo.com/highschool/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2627
PNR Scouting on Taillon
http://pnrscouting.com/scoutingreports_2010_taillonja.html
Draft America on Tailon
http://www.draftamerica.com/mlb-draft-prospects.php
Monday, February 15, 2010
2010 MLB Draft Notes
For those of you looking for superior MLB Draft coverage, two of my favorite sites are linked below:
Draft America http://www.draftamerica.com/
This site is operated by Greg Pappas, who is also an Assistant Editor for Orioles Hangout.
PNR Scouting http://pnrscouting.com
This site is operated by Nick James, who provides outstanding insight, and is one of the co-operators of Camden Depot.
As the College Baseball Season begins, here are a couple of recent Mock Drafts and Rankings:
http://pnrscouting.com/rankings_2010_fallwinter_top300_pt1.html
http://www.draftamerica.com/mlb-draft-prospects.php
http://mlbbonusbaby.com/2010/01/15/2010-mock-draft-2/
http://baseballdraftreport.com/2010/01/11/2010-mlb-mock-draft/
http://5tooltalk.com/mockdraft.html
http://stealinghome.typepad.com/stealing_home_a_baseball_/2010/01/morisatos-2010-mlb-mock-draft-version-10.html
As I stated in October, this past-draft was a good reminder that information is constantly moving, and there are a lot of variables at-play.
Grant Green went into the season as the consensus best position-player in the draft. Green's year did not meet expectations, and he fell to 13th overall in the draft.
As Draft Day arrived, most reports about who the O's would take centered around pitchers Zach Wheeler, and Tyler Matzek. The first rumors about Matt Hobgood, did not break until early evening with National Reporter Jonathan Mayo.
I guess my point is that to take the Mock Drafts with an understandable grain-of-salt. What is interesting is to read the analysis on the players, and to think a bit about how they project.
As the 2010 season starts, my hope remains that SS Christian Colon of Cal State Fullerton, will be on the board when the Orioles pick.
If Colon proves worthy of the 3rd overall selection this June, it will be a huge boost for the system. As perhaps the best College position-player in the draft, he would likely head directly to the Arizona Fall League once signed. He would be in position to start 2011 at Frederick, and possibly Bowie. Basically I am describing the path Gordon Beckham took from the 2008 June Draft to making his Major League Debut on June 4th 2009.
As of now, it is worth noting where Colon ranks on the respective boards:
PNR Scouting has Colon as the 9th best prospect.
Draft America has Colon as the 7th best prospect.
MLB Bonus Baby has Colon going 2nd overall to Pittsburgh.
Baseball Draft Report has Colon going 11th overall to Toronto.
5 Tool Talk has Colon as the 5th best prospect, and going 4th overall to Kansas City.
Stealing Home has Colon going 3rd overall to Baltimore.
Draft America http://www.draftamerica.com/
This site is operated by Greg Pappas, who is also an Assistant Editor for Orioles Hangout.
PNR Scouting http://pnrscouting.com
This site is operated by Nick James, who provides outstanding insight, and is one of the co-operators of Camden Depot.
As the College Baseball Season begins, here are a couple of recent Mock Drafts and Rankings:
http://pnrscouting.com/rankings_2010_fallwinter_top300_pt1.html
http://www.draftamerica.com/mlb-draft-prospects.php
http://mlbbonusbaby.com/2010/01/15/2010-mock-draft-2/
http://baseballdraftreport.com/2010/01/11/2010-mlb-mock-draft/
http://5tooltalk.com/mockdraft.html
http://stealinghome.typepad.com/stealing_home_a_baseball_/2010/01/morisatos-2010-mlb-mock-draft-version-10.html
As I stated in October, this past-draft was a good reminder that information is constantly moving, and there are a lot of variables at-play.
Grant Green went into the season as the consensus best position-player in the draft. Green's year did not meet expectations, and he fell to 13th overall in the draft.
As Draft Day arrived, most reports about who the O's would take centered around pitchers Zach Wheeler, and Tyler Matzek. The first rumors about Matt Hobgood, did not break until early evening with National Reporter Jonathan Mayo.
I guess my point is that to take the Mock Drafts with an understandable grain-of-salt. What is interesting is to read the analysis on the players, and to think a bit about how they project.
As the 2010 season starts, my hope remains that SS Christian Colon of Cal State Fullerton, will be on the board when the Orioles pick.
If Colon proves worthy of the 3rd overall selection this June, it will be a huge boost for the system. As perhaps the best College position-player in the draft, he would likely head directly to the Arizona Fall League once signed. He would be in position to start 2011 at Frederick, and possibly Bowie. Basically I am describing the path Gordon Beckham took from the 2008 June Draft to making his Major League Debut on June 4th 2009.
As of now, it is worth noting where Colon ranks on the respective boards:
PNR Scouting has Colon as the 9th best prospect.
Draft America has Colon as the 7th best prospect.
MLB Bonus Baby has Colon going 2nd overall to Pittsburgh.
Baseball Draft Report has Colon going 11th overall to Toronto.
5 Tool Talk has Colon as the 5th best prospect, and going 4th overall to Kansas City.
Stealing Home has Colon going 3rd overall to Baltimore.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
2010 MLB Draft
We are about 8 months away from the 2010 June Amateur Draft, but it is never too early to look ahead.
If there was any benefit to the collapse suffered by the O's, it was that it locked the Orioles into picking 3rd overall. This will allow the Orioles to add another high-end ceiling type of player to the organization. As has been shown with Wieters, and Matusz, the opportunity is there for almost immediate dividends.
There are number of good sources for Draft information, but I do not think there are any sites better than Draft America (formerly MLB-Draft.com).
You can find Draft America at http://www.draftamerica.com/
The operator of Draft America is Greg Pappas who is an Assistant Editor of Orioles Hangout. (www.orioleshangout.com)
This year, Mr. Pappas has Nick James contributing to the site. Mr. James provides outstanding insight, and is one of the co-operators of Camden Depot. (http://www.camdendepot.com/)
As was shown with this past-draft, the information is constantly moving, and there are a lot of variables at-play.
Grant Green went into the season as the consensus best position-player in the draft. Green's year did not meet expectations, and he fell to 13th overall in the draft.
As Draft Day arrived, most reports about who the O's would take centered around pitchers Zach Wheeler, and Tyler Matzek. The first rumors about Matt Hobgood, did not break until early evening with National Reporter Jonathan Mayo.
I guess my point is that to take the Mock Drafts with an understandable grain-of-salt. What is interesting is to read the analysis on the players, and to think a bit about how they project.
Mr. Pappas, and Mr. James both have a Mock Draft up, which you can find here:
http://www.draftamerica.com/mock-central.php
The initial name that catches my eye is SS Christian Colon of Cal State Fullerton, whom Pappas has going 6th overall, and James has going 3rd overall to the O's.
As Mr. James alludes, you do not draft for 'need' in baseball, but it is best to combine an organizational need with a viable draft-able option. There is no hole more glaring in the Orioles organization, than at SS, even with the addition of Mychal Givens. Givens is a raw HS age kid, that is going to need to 3-4 years of further development.
If Colon proves worthy of the 3rd overall selection next June, it will be a huge boost for the system. As perhaps the best College position-player in the draft, he would likely head directly to the Arizona Fall League once signed. He would be in position to start 2011 at Frederick, and possibly Bowie. Basically I am describing the path Gordon Beckham took from the 2008 June Draft to making his Major League Debut on June 4th 2009.
MLB Bonus Baby (http://mlbbonusbaby.com) has the following to say about Colon:
"Colon may have broken his leg at the end of Team USA’s season, but that was only after he had established himself as the best all-around position player in the 2010 college class. He’s a good fielder with good instincts, a good hitter, and there’s really nothing he’s bad at. People will whine about his lack of dazzling tools, but Colon’s got a solid toolset with a solid skillset with great makeup, and there’s no reason to think he can’t be an above-average Major League shortstop in relatively short order. Assuming he recovers fully from the broken leg, he’s a top ten pick with a good spring."
Here is a link to Colon's Cal State Fullerton profile:
http://www.fullertontitans.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/colon_christian00.html
So we will see what happens. Will have to watch how Colon recovers from the injury, and how he and others perform.
One thing I do not see happening, is the Orioles having an opportunity at Bryce Harper. I would imagine similarly to Strasburg, the Nationals will do what is necessary to add that talent to their system.
If there was any benefit to the collapse suffered by the O's, it was that it locked the Orioles into picking 3rd overall. This will allow the Orioles to add another high-end ceiling type of player to the organization. As has been shown with Wieters, and Matusz, the opportunity is there for almost immediate dividends.
There are number of good sources for Draft information, but I do not think there are any sites better than Draft America (formerly MLB-Draft.com).
You can find Draft America at http://www.draftamerica.com/
The operator of Draft America is Greg Pappas who is an Assistant Editor of Orioles Hangout. (www.orioleshangout.com)
This year, Mr. Pappas has Nick James contributing to the site. Mr. James provides outstanding insight, and is one of the co-operators of Camden Depot. (http://www.camdendepot.com/)
As was shown with this past-draft, the information is constantly moving, and there are a lot of variables at-play.
Grant Green went into the season as the consensus best position-player in the draft. Green's year did not meet expectations, and he fell to 13th overall in the draft.
As Draft Day arrived, most reports about who the O's would take centered around pitchers Zach Wheeler, and Tyler Matzek. The first rumors about Matt Hobgood, did not break until early evening with National Reporter Jonathan Mayo.
I guess my point is that to take the Mock Drafts with an understandable grain-of-salt. What is interesting is to read the analysis on the players, and to think a bit about how they project.
Mr. Pappas, and Mr. James both have a Mock Draft up, which you can find here:
http://www.draftamerica.com/mock-central.php
The initial name that catches my eye is SS Christian Colon of Cal State Fullerton, whom Pappas has going 6th overall, and James has going 3rd overall to the O's.
As Mr. James alludes, you do not draft for 'need' in baseball, but it is best to combine an organizational need with a viable draft-able option. There is no hole more glaring in the Orioles organization, than at SS, even with the addition of Mychal Givens. Givens is a raw HS age kid, that is going to need to 3-4 years of further development.
If Colon proves worthy of the 3rd overall selection next June, it will be a huge boost for the system. As perhaps the best College position-player in the draft, he would likely head directly to the Arizona Fall League once signed. He would be in position to start 2011 at Frederick, and possibly Bowie. Basically I am describing the path Gordon Beckham took from the 2008 June Draft to making his Major League Debut on June 4th 2009.
MLB Bonus Baby (http://mlbbonusbaby.com) has the following to say about Colon:
"Colon may have broken his leg at the end of Team USA’s season, but that was only after he had established himself as the best all-around position player in the 2010 college class. He’s a good fielder with good instincts, a good hitter, and there’s really nothing he’s bad at. People will whine about his lack of dazzling tools, but Colon’s got a solid toolset with a solid skillset with great makeup, and there’s no reason to think he can’t be an above-average Major League shortstop in relatively short order. Assuming he recovers fully from the broken leg, he’s a top ten pick with a good spring."
Here is a link to Colon's Cal State Fullerton profile:
http://www.fullertontitans.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/colon_christian00.html
So we will see what happens. Will have to watch how Colon recovers from the injury, and how he and others perform.
One thing I do not see happening, is the Orioles having an opportunity at Bryce Harper. I would imagine similarly to Strasburg, the Nationals will do what is necessary to add that talent to their system.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
O's 3rd round pick - Tyler Townsend, 1B FIU
With their 3rd round pick in the 2009 MLB Draft, the O's selected Florida International First-baseman Tyler Townsend.
Townsend had an .858 Slugging % this year, with 24 homers, and 16 doubles in 212 at-bats.
http://www.fiusports.com/fls/11700/Stats_Cumulative/Bball/2009/teamcume.htm
http://www.fiusports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=49061&SPID=4760&DB_OEM_ID=11700&ATCLID=751251&Q_SEASON=2008
Miami Herald
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/colleges/fiu/story/1047184.html
Intellisport
http://intellisport.wordpress.com/2009/06/06/tyler-townsend/
"
Power – + Potential, solid strong stroke and good stride/ transfer ( 20 – 30 Home Runs )
Contact – Good but drops his hands which will lead to K’s and pop ups ( .270 – .290 )
Speed – Average, will not help you on the bases but will not hurt you either
Arm – Average
Defense – Limited range limits him to first base and right field, must improve to add left field to repertoire
Can mash the ball middle in and has big time power potential. Soft stride, good turn and hip flexion will allow his swing to create home run/ double power even with wood. He drops his hands slightly as the ball travels to home, that will lead to K’s and pop ups at the next level and must be altered if he is to live up to his Todd Helton like potential. His speed is negligible and his defense is lackluster but he can be plugged into right field without harming the defensive output. He could also play first base on a weak defensive team or left field on a slow one. He would be a 5 or 6 hole hitter on a Major Leage team."
MASN
http://masnsports.com/2009/06/jordan-talks-about-the-next-tw.html
Townsend was primarily an outfield this year at Florida International, but the Orioles also like him at first base.
"He needs to do all that," Jordan said. "It's his bat we liked. A left-handed bat, a lot of bat speed and he's got leverage. He's got real power. And he's a Delaware kid.
"At our workout the other day, he said he wanted be an Oriole more than any other club. He's a good story. He and (Matt) Hobgood are thrilled to be coming."
Townsend will report to Aberdeen and let the Orioles decide where he should go from there.
"It's a good spot for him," Jordan said. "If he gets going and we want to send him somewhere else this summer, that's fine."
The Orioles targeted a high school shortstop or catcher in the second round. They wanted a left-handed power bat in the third.
"It's a good start," Jordan said.
The player I immediately think of as a compairson is Reimold, though it sounds like Reimold is a better athlete.
What I like most about the first three rounds of this draft, is it is clear to me that Jordan got the players that him and his staff identifed, and wanted. You have to be excited about that.
Townsend had an .858 Slugging % this year, with 24 homers, and 16 doubles in 212 at-bats.
http://www.fiusports.com/fls/11700/Stats_Cumulative/Bball/2009/teamcume.htm
http://www.fiusports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=49061&SPID=4760&DB_OEM_ID=11700&ATCLID=751251&Q_SEASON=2008
Miami Herald
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/colleges/fiu/story/1047184.html
Intellisport
http://intellisport.wordpress.com/2009/06/06/tyler-townsend/
"
Power – + Potential, solid strong stroke and good stride/ transfer ( 20 – 30 Home Runs )
Contact – Good but drops his hands which will lead to K’s and pop ups ( .270 – .290 )
Speed – Average, will not help you on the bases but will not hurt you either
Arm – Average
Defense – Limited range limits him to first base and right field, must improve to add left field to repertoire
Can mash the ball middle in and has big time power potential. Soft stride, good turn and hip flexion will allow his swing to create home run/ double power even with wood. He drops his hands slightly as the ball travels to home, that will lead to K’s and pop ups at the next level and must be altered if he is to live up to his Todd Helton like potential. His speed is negligible and his defense is lackluster but he can be plugged into right field without harming the defensive output. He could also play first base on a weak defensive team or left field on a slow one. He would be a 5 or 6 hole hitter on a Major Leage team."
MASN
http://masnsports.com/2009/06/jordan-talks-about-the-next-tw.html
Townsend was primarily an outfield this year at Florida International, but the Orioles also like him at first base.
"He needs to do all that," Jordan said. "It's his bat we liked. A left-handed bat, a lot of bat speed and he's got leverage. He's got real power. And he's a Delaware kid.
"At our workout the other day, he said he wanted be an Oriole more than any other club. He's a good story. He and (Matt) Hobgood are thrilled to be coming."
Townsend will report to Aberdeen and let the Orioles decide where he should go from there.
"It's a good spot for him," Jordan said. "If he gets going and we want to send him somewhere else this summer, that's fine."
The Orioles targeted a high school shortstop or catcher in the second round. They wanted a left-handed power bat in the third.
"It's a good start," Jordan said.
The player I immediately think of as a compairson is Reimold, though it sounds like Reimold is a better athlete.
What I like most about the first three rounds of this draft, is it is clear to me that Jordan got the players that him and his staff identifed, and wanted. You have to be excited about that.
O's 2nd Round Pick is SS Mychel Givens
In the 2nd round of the 2009 Major League Baseball Draft, the Baltimore Orioles selected SS Mychel Givens.
I am extremely excited by this selection.
Givens was looked at as both a P, and a SS by many teams. A great number of teams were infatuated by his 96-97 MPH fast-ball, and believed he should stay on the mound.
The Tampa HS prospect is known as a superior athlete, and while he is years away from the bigs; he instantly becomes the best Middle Infield prospect in the system; and has a legitimate chance to be the O's SS of the future.
Here is some information on Givens:
Tampa Tribune
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/jul/17/sp-a-conversation-with-plant-highs-mychal-givens/
MLBDraft.blogspot.com
http://2009mlbdraft.blogspot.com/2009/02/pre-season-top-30-draft-prospects.html
"13) Mychal Givens-SS-Florida HS-Givens is like the Aaron Hicks of this draft. A lot of teams might want to draft the kid as a pitcher but he might just work out better in the field. He’s a pretty good defender with plus range, good actions and as you probably guessed a plus arm. At the plate, Givens is raw. Not Matt Bush raw but more like Justin Jackson raw. Given time, Givens could become a tremendous, exciting prospect at shortstop. On the hill, he needs to improve his offspeed offerings a little. His fastball is a plus pitch already as it can touch 97-98 MPH*MLB comparison: Rafael Furcal"
Minor League Ball.com
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/28/703358/1-strasburg-then-who
Baseball Draft Report.com
http://baseballdraftreport.com/2009/06/09/2009-mlb-draft-top-100-big-board/
MLB.com Scouting Report
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=givens
Hitting ability:
Givens isn't a raw hitter, like some athletic high schoolers are, but there is some risk in his bat.
Power:
He's got some strength for future power, but doesn't currently have a power stroke. He hits off his front foot.
Running speed:
He's not a burner, but he does have plus speed.
Base running:
He appears to have a good idea of what he's doing on the basepaths.
Arm strength:
Also a talented pitching prospect, he has at least plus arm strength.
Fielding:
He shows the ability to be a good defender at shortstop.
Range:
He's got very good actions and can go left and right very well.
Physical Description:
Givens has a rangy, athletic frame that should allow him to add strength as he matures
Medical Update:
Healthy.
Strengths:
His athleticism, with plus speed and good overall defensive actions.
Weaknesses:
Will he hit enough? There's talent there, but there's a question over whether the bat will carry to the next level.
Summary:
Givens is one of the better all-around athletes in the Draft class who will get looks both at shortstop and on the mound on Draft day. He's a good defender with a plus arm who uses his athleticism well. A plus runner, he's got the kind of frame that should allow him to get stronger ... which could lead to more power. The key to unlocking that will be a better overall hitting approach. There is some risk with his bat, but if a team feels he'll hit, he'll go early.
Saber Scouting.com (1 of 2)
http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/07/27/2009hshot30/#more-285
"Givens is a bit of a conundrum to scouts at this admittedly very early juncture of the draft process. You can take a look at some video I took of Givens and what I thought of him from my first two looks. I originally compared him to current Jays prospect and former prep shortstop Justin Jackson. He’s an athletic and heady leader, a very good defender, and has a solid stroke with a little pop. I just didn’t see enough size/projection (looks in person like 5′10, 175), power, or consistent hitability to project him as a first round pick, but realized that his track record, makeup, and performance give him upward mobility on draft boards.
What I saw at the end of his junior season still seems to be the rap on Givens for most scouts, as he’s got all the makings of a top pick, but lacks a standout bat. Don’t get me wrong, that could still be a seven figure package in the sandwich round, like Jackson was, but others feel Givens is all projection at the plate and more of a third round pick as a shortstop and prefer him on the mound.
I discounted Givens’ long-term mound prospects in my earlier look, but it turns out he was fatigued when I saw him and has raised him arm angle a bit as well. At the PG National showcase, he was up to 94 while flashing an above-average slider and changeup from a low 3/4 arm angle; similar to what I saw, but showing improvement across the board. As it stands now, there’s a slight lean from the people I’ve talked to for Givens to stay on the mound, but his progess on the mound and at the plate should be an interesting draft storyline to monitor."
Saber Scouting.com (2 of 2)
http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/05/06/news-notes-the-last-week-part2/
"Givens is a junior and top 2009 draft prospect that some sources say is the top high school junior in the country (others say second-best). I got a chance to see Givens play two games this week, the second one being his team’s surprise loss to Dunedin High in the second round of the state playoffs in front of a rowdy crowd of a few thousand at the Blue Jays complex in Dunedin.
Givens has all the makings of a first-round prep shortstop with a body that won’t outgrow the position, true shortstop actions with above-average defensive tools, and a quick release from a good arm that sits in the low 90s on the mound. He’s also an excellent athlete and basketball standout that made an amazing play at pitcher versus Dunedin as he charged a swinging bunt to field and flip to the catcher in one motion while he was running past home plate. He’s a vocal leader, good student, and likable personality with great makeup. While he’s clearly a shortstop prospect, he pitches at 90-92 with some run and flashes an above-average sweeping curveball and an average changeup with lade fade.
His speed is deceptive: he looks more quick than fast and somewhat labored once underway, but I got him at 3.87 to first from the right side on a bunt (confirmed on video) and he’s a 55 to 60 runner.
So there’s all the reasons to like Givens, but there are some things I saw that I didn’t like from these two games. Givens certainly has more upside as a shortstop as he lacked feel on the mound and throws from a true sidearm angle, which is very effective in the 90s versus high school competition, but would project him as a set-up man at best in pro ball.
As far as his swing goes, the elements are there and he has shown the ability to hit with wood against top competition, but the mechanics break down too often for me, and with his smallish frame (I’d estimate 5′10, 170) and lack of leverage, he projects to have average power at best. He struggled to square the ball up against average to good pitching when I saw him and showed bad habits in lunging at the ball, being flat-footed, out on his front foot, and an intricate toe-touch I’m not crazy about. Still, those are things that don’t become problems until professional ball, so he was still clearly the best player on the field.
I think Givens compares favorably to past hyped shortstop prospects like Jays’ SS prospect Justin Jackson or Padres SS prospect Drew Cumberland. Both were late-first to supplemental round prospects with limited ceiling or warts at the plate, a long track record of success, great defense, and the makeup to succeed with all eyes on them. Givens will also definitely be in our upcoming 2009 draft prospects list."
Youtube Videos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB10lsrlpBQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mko0FZv5jXY&feature=related
I hope the O's can get him signed as soon as possible, and send him to Aberdeen. If I were being greedy, I'd like to see him get time in the Arizona Fall League as well, but that is likely a year ahead of time.
If the O's can get him signed, get him short-season experience in Aberdeen in 2009, and send him to full-season Delmarva to start 2010, that would be outstanding.
EDIT - In an interview with MASN, O's Director of Scouting Joe Jordan said that Givens will likely be assigned to the Gulf Coast Orioles.
I am extremely excited by this selection.
Givens was looked at as both a P, and a SS by many teams. A great number of teams were infatuated by his 96-97 MPH fast-ball, and believed he should stay on the mound.
The Tampa HS prospect is known as a superior athlete, and while he is years away from the bigs; he instantly becomes the best Middle Infield prospect in the system; and has a legitimate chance to be the O's SS of the future.
Here is some information on Givens:
Tampa Tribune
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/jul/17/sp-a-conversation-with-plant-highs-mychal-givens/
MLBDraft.blogspot.com
http://2009mlbdraft.blogspot.com/2009/02/pre-season-top-30-draft-prospects.html
"13) Mychal Givens-SS-Florida HS-Givens is like the Aaron Hicks of this draft. A lot of teams might want to draft the kid as a pitcher but he might just work out better in the field. He’s a pretty good defender with plus range, good actions and as you probably guessed a plus arm. At the plate, Givens is raw. Not Matt Bush raw but more like Justin Jackson raw. Given time, Givens could become a tremendous, exciting prospect at shortstop. On the hill, he needs to improve his offspeed offerings a little. His fastball is a plus pitch already as it can touch 97-98 MPH*MLB comparison: Rafael Furcal"
Minor League Ball.com
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/28/703358/1-strasburg-then-who
Baseball Draft Report.com
http://baseballdraftreport.com/2009/06/09/2009-mlb-draft-top-100-big-board/
MLB.com Scouting Report
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=givens
Hitting ability:
Givens isn't a raw hitter, like some athletic high schoolers are, but there is some risk in his bat.
Power:
He's got some strength for future power, but doesn't currently have a power stroke. He hits off his front foot.
Running speed:
He's not a burner, but he does have plus speed.
Base running:
He appears to have a good idea of what he's doing on the basepaths.
Arm strength:
Also a talented pitching prospect, he has at least plus arm strength.
Fielding:
He shows the ability to be a good defender at shortstop.
Range:
He's got very good actions and can go left and right very well.
Physical Description:
Givens has a rangy, athletic frame that should allow him to add strength as he matures
Medical Update:
Healthy.
Strengths:
His athleticism, with plus speed and good overall defensive actions.
Weaknesses:
Will he hit enough? There's talent there, but there's a question over whether the bat will carry to the next level.
Summary:
Givens is one of the better all-around athletes in the Draft class who will get looks both at shortstop and on the mound on Draft day. He's a good defender with a plus arm who uses his athleticism well. A plus runner, he's got the kind of frame that should allow him to get stronger ... which could lead to more power. The key to unlocking that will be a better overall hitting approach. There is some risk with his bat, but if a team feels he'll hit, he'll go early.
Saber Scouting.com (1 of 2)
http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/07/27/2009hshot30/#more-285
"Givens is a bit of a conundrum to scouts at this admittedly very early juncture of the draft process. You can take a look at some video I took of Givens and what I thought of him from my first two looks. I originally compared him to current Jays prospect and former prep shortstop Justin Jackson. He’s an athletic and heady leader, a very good defender, and has a solid stroke with a little pop. I just didn’t see enough size/projection (looks in person like 5′10, 175), power, or consistent hitability to project him as a first round pick, but realized that his track record, makeup, and performance give him upward mobility on draft boards.
What I saw at the end of his junior season still seems to be the rap on Givens for most scouts, as he’s got all the makings of a top pick, but lacks a standout bat. Don’t get me wrong, that could still be a seven figure package in the sandwich round, like Jackson was, but others feel Givens is all projection at the plate and more of a third round pick as a shortstop and prefer him on the mound.
I discounted Givens’ long-term mound prospects in my earlier look, but it turns out he was fatigued when I saw him and has raised him arm angle a bit as well. At the PG National showcase, he was up to 94 while flashing an above-average slider and changeup from a low 3/4 arm angle; similar to what I saw, but showing improvement across the board. As it stands now, there’s a slight lean from the people I’ve talked to for Givens to stay on the mound, but his progess on the mound and at the plate should be an interesting draft storyline to monitor."
Saber Scouting.com (2 of 2)
http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/05/06/news-notes-the-last-week-part2/
"Givens is a junior and top 2009 draft prospect that some sources say is the top high school junior in the country (others say second-best). I got a chance to see Givens play two games this week, the second one being his team’s surprise loss to Dunedin High in the second round of the state playoffs in front of a rowdy crowd of a few thousand at the Blue Jays complex in Dunedin.
Givens has all the makings of a first-round prep shortstop with a body that won’t outgrow the position, true shortstop actions with above-average defensive tools, and a quick release from a good arm that sits in the low 90s on the mound. He’s also an excellent athlete and basketball standout that made an amazing play at pitcher versus Dunedin as he charged a swinging bunt to field and flip to the catcher in one motion while he was running past home plate. He’s a vocal leader, good student, and likable personality with great makeup. While he’s clearly a shortstop prospect, he pitches at 90-92 with some run and flashes an above-average sweeping curveball and an average changeup with lade fade.
His speed is deceptive: he looks more quick than fast and somewhat labored once underway, but I got him at 3.87 to first from the right side on a bunt (confirmed on video) and he’s a 55 to 60 runner.
So there’s all the reasons to like Givens, but there are some things I saw that I didn’t like from these two games. Givens certainly has more upside as a shortstop as he lacked feel on the mound and throws from a true sidearm angle, which is very effective in the 90s versus high school competition, but would project him as a set-up man at best in pro ball.
As far as his swing goes, the elements are there and he has shown the ability to hit with wood against top competition, but the mechanics break down too often for me, and with his smallish frame (I’d estimate 5′10, 170) and lack of leverage, he projects to have average power at best. He struggled to square the ball up against average to good pitching when I saw him and showed bad habits in lunging at the ball, being flat-footed, out on his front foot, and an intricate toe-touch I’m not crazy about. Still, those are things that don’t become problems until professional ball, so he was still clearly the best player on the field.
I think Givens compares favorably to past hyped shortstop prospects like Jays’ SS prospect Justin Jackson or Padres SS prospect Drew Cumberland. Both were late-first to supplemental round prospects with limited ceiling or warts at the plate, a long track record of success, great defense, and the makeup to succeed with all eyes on them. Givens will also definitely be in our upcoming 2009 draft prospects list."
Youtube Videos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB10lsrlpBQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mko0FZv5jXY&feature=related
I hope the O's can get him signed as soon as possible, and send him to Aberdeen. If I were being greedy, I'd like to see him get time in the Arizona Fall League as well, but that is likely a year ahead of time.
If the O's can get him signed, get him short-season experience in Aberdeen in 2009, and send him to full-season Delmarva to start 2010, that would be outstanding.
EDIT - In an interview with MASN, O's Director of Scouting Joe Jordan said that Givens will likely be assigned to the Gulf Coast Orioles.
MASN's Steve Melewski interviews Orioles Scouting Director Joe Jordan
MASN's Steve Melewski has posted an interview he conducted with O's Scouting Director Joe Jordan, on the selection of Matt Hobgood.
http://masnsports.com/2009/06/joe-jordans-comments-on-pickin.html
Jordan says that Hobgood is physically ready, that he was not a money saver.
Jordan clearly feels excited by the pick, and I have heard what I wanted to hear.
If his staff believes Hobgood was the guy to select with that pick, I support the decision.
We will all see how it works out.
http://masnsports.com/2009/06/joe-jordans-comments-on-pickin.html
Jordan says that Hobgood is physically ready, that he was not a money saver.
Jordan clearly feels excited by the pick, and I have heard what I wanted to hear.
If his staff believes Hobgood was the guy to select with that pick, I support the decision.
We will all see how it works out.
The O's select HS RHP Matt Hobgood with the 5th overall pick
With the 5th overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft, the Baltimore Orioles selected HS Right-handed pitcher Matt Hobgood.
Here are some profiles on Hobgood:
http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjo.../06/08/CG28101
http://mvn.com/outsider/2009/05/mlb-...t-hobgood.html
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/0...hobgood-video/
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/03/25/qa-with-rhp-matt-hobgood-norco-high/
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/...ontent=hobgood
http://www.perfectgame.org/(X(1)S(gp3wrczmltj42ovb34jt0nrb))/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=129225&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1
http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/MLB_Draft/entry/view/24149/looks_can_be_deceiving_body_types_dont_always_tell_full_story
http://baseballdraftreport.com/2009/06/05/mock-draft-3-0/
Baseball Beginnings Scouting Report:
PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION: Big boned, large athletic frame, large features, a man among boys.
STRENTHS: Very athletic for size, multi-sport athlete. Possesses above-average arm with aggressive delivery. Predominantly uses 2-seam FB (91-95), avg. 92-93. Maintains velocity throughout. Gains strength later in game. Hit 94 several times in seventh inning. CB has power and depth with occasional tight rotation, 78-82, mostly 81. CH (change-up) is split-grip style, down to 81. Fields position very well. Highly athletic. Competitive kid and shows it.
WEAKNESSES: Active front side. Lead arm and hip tend to open too quickly.
SUMMARY: A horse with room to grow. Once front side is coached and closed up, stuff will only improve. Shows you making of two above-average pitches right now with power and movement. Athleticism should allow for adjustments. Size, strength and stamina are impressive for his age. Has a bright future and should be an innings-eating mainstay on a contender.
Delivery 45/55
Fastball 60/65
Curveball 55/60
Change-up 40/50
Control 40/50
Command 40/50
Overall Future Potential (OFP): 55
MLB.Com Scouting Report
Fastball:
Hobgood threw his fastball in the 89-92 mph range and went right after hitters with it.
Fastball movement:
Has heavy, hard life.
Curve:
A plus pitch, 11-to-5, true curve, thrown 74-79 mph. It has the chance to be the best high school curve in this class.
Slider:
It's slurvy at 80 mph, and is a usable pitch.
Changeup:
Didn't show a changeup and may lack a feel for it.
Control:
Has average high school command, but was throwing to the radar gun a bit too much.
Poise:
Exceptional. He challenged hitters, daring them to try and hit him. He has a little mean streak on the mound.
Physical Description:
Hobgood is a big, physical animal -- like a Josh Beckett type.
Medical Update:
Healthy.
Strengths:
Size, strength and durability. Also has two plus pitches now, with the intangibles to be a front-of-the-rotation starter.
Weaknesses:
Doesn't show a feel for a changeup. He lands a little hard and will have to soften his front side a little to hone command.
Summary:
Hobgood is a big, strong right-hander with two plus offerings in his heavy fastball and outstanding curve. Some small tweaks to his delivery should help him find even better fastball command. If he can add a changeup to go along with his other offerings and his tremendous mound presence, he has the chance to be a front-of-the-rotation starter in the future.
Ive stated numerous times Green would have been my pick... and I thought that either Alex White or Z.Wheeler was actually going to be the pick... Hobgood was seen as a lower 1st round pick by most evaluators.... that said, I can get behind the pick if Joe Jordan and the O's Scouting Department comes out and says he was their top choice.
I can also get behind the pick, if they say they graded him out fairly similar to a number of different arms, and thought he would be the easiest to sign - if they use that 'extra' money to sign additional players over-slot.
If Hobgood signs early enough, he could get time at Aberdeen this summer. If things go well, he should start the 2010 season at Low A Delmarva.
Best case scenario, Hobgood becomes a possibility in Baltimore between the 2012 and 2013 seasons.
Here are some profiles on Hobgood:
http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjo.../06/08/CG28101
http://mvn.com/outsider/2009/05/mlb-...t-hobgood.html
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/0...hobgood-video/
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/03/25/qa-with-rhp-matt-hobgood-norco-high/
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/...ontent=hobgood
http://www.perfectgame.org/(X(1)S(gp3wrczmltj42ovb34jt0nrb))/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=129225&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1
http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/MLB_Draft/entry/view/24149/looks_can_be_deceiving_body_types_dont_always_tell_full_story
http://baseballdraftreport.com/2009/06/05/mock-draft-3-0/
Baseball Beginnings Scouting Report:
PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION: Big boned, large athletic frame, large features, a man among boys.
STRENTHS: Very athletic for size, multi-sport athlete. Possesses above-average arm with aggressive delivery. Predominantly uses 2-seam FB (91-95), avg. 92-93. Maintains velocity throughout. Gains strength later in game. Hit 94 several times in seventh inning. CB has power and depth with occasional tight rotation, 78-82, mostly 81. CH (change-up) is split-grip style, down to 81. Fields position very well. Highly athletic. Competitive kid and shows it.
WEAKNESSES: Active front side. Lead arm and hip tend to open too quickly.
SUMMARY: A horse with room to grow. Once front side is coached and closed up, stuff will only improve. Shows you making of two above-average pitches right now with power and movement. Athleticism should allow for adjustments. Size, strength and stamina are impressive for his age. Has a bright future and should be an innings-eating mainstay on a contender.
Delivery 45/55
Fastball 60/65
Curveball 55/60
Change-up 40/50
Control 40/50
Command 40/50
Overall Future Potential (OFP): 55
MLB.Com Scouting Report
Fastball:
Hobgood threw his fastball in the 89-92 mph range and went right after hitters with it.
Fastball movement:
Has heavy, hard life.
Curve:
A plus pitch, 11-to-5, true curve, thrown 74-79 mph. It has the chance to be the best high school curve in this class.
Slider:
It's slurvy at 80 mph, and is a usable pitch.
Changeup:
Didn't show a changeup and may lack a feel for it.
Control:
Has average high school command, but was throwing to the radar gun a bit too much.
Poise:
Exceptional. He challenged hitters, daring them to try and hit him. He has a little mean streak on the mound.
Physical Description:
Hobgood is a big, physical animal -- like a Josh Beckett type.
Medical Update:
Healthy.
Strengths:
Size, strength and durability. Also has two plus pitches now, with the intangibles to be a front-of-the-rotation starter.
Weaknesses:
Doesn't show a feel for a changeup. He lands a little hard and will have to soften his front side a little to hone command.
Summary:
Hobgood is a big, strong right-hander with two plus offerings in his heavy fastball and outstanding curve. Some small tweaks to his delivery should help him find even better fastball command. If he can add a changeup to go along with his other offerings and his tremendous mound presence, he has the chance to be a front-of-the-rotation starter in the future.
Ive stated numerous times Green would have been my pick... and I thought that either Alex White or Z.Wheeler was actually going to be the pick... Hobgood was seen as a lower 1st round pick by most evaluators.... that said, I can get behind the pick if Joe Jordan and the O's Scouting Department comes out and says he was their top choice.
I can also get behind the pick, if they say they graded him out fairly similar to a number of different arms, and thought he would be the easiest to sign - if they use that 'extra' money to sign additional players over-slot.
If Hobgood signs early enough, he could get time at Aberdeen this summer. If things go well, he should start the 2010 season at Low A Delmarva.
Best case scenario, Hobgood becomes a possibility in Baltimore between the 2012 and 2013 seasons.
Draft fun starts with the O's pick at the #5 position
Tonight's MLB Draft should lack much suspense with the initial 4 positions.
Strasburg is obviously going to the Nationals. Ackley is widely seen as going second overall to the Mariners.
There are a fair amount of final mock drafts that have Donovan Tate going to San Diego with the third pick.
With the fourth pick, Pittsburgh has reached a pre-draft deal with the Catcher Tony Sanchez. This is an over-reach on talent alone, and a deal based on getting a player at the price they went.
If there are no surprises in the aforementioned picks, the O's will have their choices of a number of players at 5.
They have had UNC Pitcher Alex White, and Georgia HS Pitcher Zack Wheeler to Camden Yards.
The O's have made it known that they have concerns over Aaron Crow, and there are rumors that the price tag for Tyler Matzek could be more then they want to afford.
Late Tuesday afternoon, Jonathan Mayo has Twittered that the O's will consider HS Pitcher Matt Hobgood.
http://twitter.com/JonathanMayoB3
Hobgood has some pedigree, but if this comes to fruition, it would have to been seen as a signability deal as well. On the other-hand, if that is who Joe Jordan and the Scouting Department likes best; I have no problem with it.
Here are some links to information on Hobgood:
http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjo.../06/08/CG28101
http://mvn.com/outsider/2009/05/mlb-...t-hobgood.html
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/0...hobgood-video/
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/04/11/matt-hobgood-scouting-report/
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/...ontent=hobgood
If it allowed the O's to spend over-slot in lower rounds to get some additional higher end talent that falls (for whatever reason), those could be other reasons to support the selection.
Ultimately I believe the Orioles will select White.
I continue to believe the pick should be USC's SS Grant Green.
The rumors today on Green have the O's potentially interested at 5, along with the Tigers at 9, KC with the 12th pick, and St. Louis with the 19th.
One Baseball America Mock Draft from this morning had Green out of the 1st round.
Yesterday, Baseball America stated that there are rumors floating that Green had a hand-injury to start this year.
This only peaks my interest further in Green, as it gives rationale for his early season-struggles, beyond having 'draft-itis.'
One thing you continue to hear about Green, is that teams are wary of his salary demands, particularly with having Boras as his agent.
Strasburg is obviously going to the Nationals. Ackley is widely seen as going second overall to the Mariners.
There are a fair amount of final mock drafts that have Donovan Tate going to San Diego with the third pick.
With the fourth pick, Pittsburgh has reached a pre-draft deal with the Catcher Tony Sanchez. This is an over-reach on talent alone, and a deal based on getting a player at the price they went.
If there are no surprises in the aforementioned picks, the O's will have their choices of a number of players at 5.
They have had UNC Pitcher Alex White, and Georgia HS Pitcher Zack Wheeler to Camden Yards.
The O's have made it known that they have concerns over Aaron Crow, and there are rumors that the price tag for Tyler Matzek could be more then they want to afford.
Late Tuesday afternoon, Jonathan Mayo has Twittered that the O's will consider HS Pitcher Matt Hobgood.
http://twitter.com/JonathanMayoB3
Hobgood has some pedigree, but if this comes to fruition, it would have to been seen as a signability deal as well. On the other-hand, if that is who Joe Jordan and the Scouting Department likes best; I have no problem with it.
Here are some links to information on Hobgood:
http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjo.../06/08/CG28101
http://mvn.com/outsider/2009/05/mlb-...t-hobgood.html
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/0...hobgood-video/
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/04/11/matt-hobgood-scouting-report/
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/...ontent=hobgood
If it allowed the O's to spend over-slot in lower rounds to get some additional higher end talent that falls (for whatever reason), those could be other reasons to support the selection.
Ultimately I believe the Orioles will select White.
I continue to believe the pick should be USC's SS Grant Green.
The rumors today on Green have the O's potentially interested at 5, along with the Tigers at 9, KC with the 12th pick, and St. Louis with the 19th.
One Baseball America Mock Draft from this morning had Green out of the 1st round.
Yesterday, Baseball America stated that there are rumors floating that Green had a hand-injury to start this year.
This only peaks my interest further in Green, as it gives rationale for his early season-struggles, beyond having 'draft-itis.'
One thing you continue to hear about Green, is that teams are wary of his salary demands, particularly with having Boras as his agent.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
The arguements for and against Grant Green
Baseball America -
"...but he is similar to Tulowitzki in his defensive skills and playmaking ability. He has excellent range, outstanding hands and the smooth and fluid actions of a possible Gold Glove defender. Green has a fine arm, though not quite the cannon Tulowitzki possesses. He's faster than either Longoria or Tulowitzki, frequently clocking in the 6.6-second range over 60 yards. While he doesn't profile as an offensive powerhouse, he should become a long-term middle-infield fixture, a solid .280-plus big league hitter who may produce 15-20 home runs annually."
USS Mariner - http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/10/strasburg-alternative-no-1-grant-green/
“…Scott Pickler, who coached Green on the Cape two years ago and coached against his team last year, was impressed with what he saw.
“I thought he was the best player on the Cape this year,” Pickler said. “He’s going to drive the ball. I think he’s going to be a big-time guy. He’s got to get a little more consistent defensively—he loses focus out there sometimes—but he’s got enough range to stay at shortstop. He profiles right with the guys that I’ve seen that have made the jump. He’s one of the better ones I’ve seen out there, tools-wise.”
Pickler is not alone with those beliefs.
“I thought he was the best player in conference last year, and there were a lot of first-round guys there,” a Pac-10 coach said. “Unfortunately, he’s still in our league.”
The coach agreed with Pickler, saying that Green has the range to stay at shortstop but added that, if he needs to move off the position, he has the bat and the arm strength to play third base.
“I think the one thing that I like about him is that he doesn’t seem to have a ton of weaknesses,” the coach said. “He has all the tools in the world. He just has to be consistent and show up every day. I think the more he plays, the better he’ll get. I have every reason to believe he’ll be in the big leagues someday.”
He won’t come cheaply, however. Like Strasburg, Green is advised by Scott Boras, but if he puts together an impressive junior season, he’ll be worth the price. Five-tool shortstops don’t grow on trees and there’s a part of me that believes Green could actually end up being better than Strasburg."
Camden Depot – http://www.camdendepot.com/2009draft_scoutingreport_greengr.html
"Frame:Green has a lean, athletic build and stands to thicken a little more as he moves on to pro ball. He has easy movements and shows excellent body control at short. He's athletic enough that he should still be able to stick at shortstop even if he adds some weight (though ultimately it will likely be his range that determines whether he's a six-spot in the long run). His long, fluid motions probably play better on the pivots and around the bag from the shortstop side than they would from second.
Swing: Load – Green slides his hands from tight on his shoulder back into a solid hitting position (at times a little far back, but not prohibitively so). He also loads with a slight shoulder turn in, closing his front side and adding a little more potential torque in his rotation. He sets with a soft toe on his lead foot, widening his stance in prep for his weight transfer. He's around an ideal 60/40 weight distro.
Stride: Green's stride is almost non-existent, essentially consisting of a dropping of his heel from his soft toe plant in the load. As he begins his weight transfer forward, he keeps a quiet head and his hands stay tied to his body keeping a short path to the ball. He has a tendency to start his hips backwards (towards the dugout) as he enters his hip rotation, which allows some of his force to escape rather than be pushed towards the pitcher and the ball. It's a subtle movement that should be correctable, but it means he may be leaving some power on the table right now.
Swing: Green keeps a very compact stroke and shows good bat speed on a short path to the ball. He's generally clean from hips to knob to elbow to barrel. His head is very quiet throughout his whole swing, and there's very little extra movement throughout. There's solid torque in his rotation that, combined with his compact swing, could produce plus power at the professional level.
Contact: Green is well-balanced with a straight line running from his helmet down his torso, thigh and out of his knee. He generates good power and maintains his steady head, down on the bat to contact (which helps him to center the ball on the barrel). Aside from the bit of momentum lost when his hips bail early in his stride, Green does an excellent job of focusing his force to and through the ball.
Follow-through: Green has a clean one-handed release at the end of his swing, but essentially maintains two hands throughout. He stays under control and balanced to completion, and is easy enough in his follow-through to make sure his swing isn't cut short, regardless of the quadrant in which he's making contact.
Swing Summary: Green has solid swing mechanics, with a slight imperfection occasionally surfacing in his hip movement. Given his frame, his compact swing and solid torque, Green should be producing more power than we've seen. The good news is much of this may be attributable to his early-season approach. By pressing early on, Green may simply be hitting bad balls, making it difficult to consistently square-up. Over the first couple of weeks of conference play, Green was much better at letting the game come to him and began to drive the ball more regularly. A lot of his power is still to the pull side, but he has shown an ability to take the ball the other way. As he refines his approach, he should be capable of driving balls to all fields.
Baseball Beginnings - http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/04/14/grant-green-report/
PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION: Tall and lean frame with long loose limbs. Has an athletic body with large hands and feet. A big man with good body control. Runs with long, graceful strides.
STRENGTHS: Polished amateur spray hitter with inside-out approach, capable of producing above-average major league average and slightly-above average power. Handsy swing generates above-average bat speed. Still head and balance, bat head does not drag, bat stays in hitting zone, shows plate coverage, good rhythmic hitter, good load and trigger. Hands stay back at swing and at take. Short strider, firm front side, keeps foundation. Defensively, soft hands, average arm, average release, average range, will field what he gets to. Heady player whose instincts will help him maximize physical skills.
WEAKNESSES: Must get physically stronger and continue to develop more consistent all-fields power approach. Still getting comfortable in new swing adapted late in amateur career. Won’t have immediate pure power for corner infield position and must continue to develop pitch selection. Defensively, AVG arm for 3B, AVG range for SS, could play both, but might be best suited as offensive-oriented 2B.
SUMMARY: Very desirable amateur product because of his bat; a good enough athlete to make it work in the infield, suitable arm, hands and athleticism. A frame to add muscle later on, but should be conscious not to lose flexibility. Reminds me of Rangers’ Michael Young.
Grades (Present/Future)
Hit 40/65
Power 40/55
Run 50/50
Arm 45/50
Field 40/50
Add one OFP point for athleticism, instincts and work ethic.Overall Future Potential: 55
MLB. Com - http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=green
Hitting ability:
"Green got off to a slow start in 2009 and was striking out more than usual. He was chasing pitches and getting himself out. He's started to come around though, hitting balls in the gap with his inside-out swing.
Power:
He does have it -- he's capable of turning on an inside pitch and driving it -- but he has more of a line-drive stroke that shoots balls in the right and left-center field gaps. He could be a 15-20 homer guy down the road.
Running speed:
When he's going full-tilt, he's got solid-average to plus speed and can really get down the line.
Base running:
He is a little bit low energy at times, but does turn it up when he wants to.
Arm strength:
He's got a solid-average to plus arm which is very accurate.
Fielding:
Has good glove action, though like with his hitting, he struggled early, making uncharacteristic errors.
Range:
He's a little better to his right than up the middle, making the play in the hole better than the one to his glove side. But he's capable of making all the plays.
Physical Description:
Green is lean and wiry with an athletic frame and strong wrists. He has some room to get stronger as he matures.
Medical Update:
An ankle injury on the Sunday of the series with UCLA forced him to miss a Tuesday doubleheader, but he was back at short the following weekend.
Strengths:
He has five-tool potential at a premium position. He's capable of hitting for average and a little power while playing a fine shortstop.
Weaknesses:
He can be a little low energy and has frustrated some at times with a perceived lack of effort.
Summary:
Premier college shortstops don't come around all that often and when they do, they get drafted early. That should be the case for Green, who has the potential to shine on both sides of the ball with all five tools. He shook off some early struggles to perform up to expectations, though his lack of energy at times has bothered scouts. Even with that, he's a confident and accomplished college player who shouldn't wait long to hear his name called."
MLB-Draft.com - http://www.mlb-draft.com/Top-Prospects-2009.php
"#8... Grant Green, SS, 6' 3-185, USC, DOB- 9/27/87 (21)Someone had to be fifth... Green has tools that scouts love, and is a potential 5-tool talent. He is a good hitter that had shown above average wood-bat power, but confounded scouts with just 4 HR's this year. Green did fight through a few minor injuries early and had a sore shoulder at the end of his Cape Cod season (in which he was the league's MVP). His defensive is shaky, but his arm and range are good and he should stick at SS. If one buys into his Cape Cod efforts more so that his uneven play this college season, he profiles as a solid defender at short with good speed and an above average bat at a prime position."
Project Prospect - http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2009/04/07/how-good-a-draft-prospect-is-green
”Grant Green entered the year as one of the elite prospects for the 2009 Draft. Thought of as a Top 5 talent by every major evaluator, the USC shortstop has had an up and down junior season and generally failed to meet expectations. Praise for Green was not hard to come by before the season started.
On Februray 6th, John Manuel of Baseball America said the following in a chat when asked about Green, "I'd say he's the favorite for the No. 2 spot."
Jim Callis (same chat) responded to a question about Green versus Tim Beckham, "I think Green has more power and upside with the bat, while Beckham is more athletic and more of a pure shortstop. When guys are close, I tend to go with the one who has proven himself vs. tougher competition, so I'll take Green by just a hair."
I had Green as my No. 3 overall prospect, calling him an, "Athletic true shortstop w/ power (.254 IsoP), 35/15 K/BB must improve, likely will." For all the preseason praise, Grant Green needed a breakout season in 2009 in order to justify the aggressive rankings. Coming off of a productive 2008 season in which he showed good power, reasonable contact ability, and was strong in the Cape (top 5 in nearly every major offensive category), he looked ready for a breakout. So far, that hasn't quite happened.
Through 110 plate appearances, Green is hitting .375/.455/.552 with 11 walks and 22 strikeouts. Green's triple slash scores have been buoyed by a recent 17-for-39 stretch that has raised his average and OBP by over 100 points. However, of those 17 hits only five went for extra bases. Green now boasts a completely rediculous BABIP of .472. To put that number in perspective, the average BABIP in the Pac-10 this year is .333, with the confrenece batting average being .278. His recent hot streak is too singles and luck driven to be real. If we adjust his numbers to even a .400 BABIP is overall line drops to .322/.403/.529, assuming you only take away singles. If we give him a confrence average BABIP Green would only be hitting .270/.351/.478.
Green's zone judgement remains a red flag. He has struck out 20.0% of the time this year, showing a massive increase from last year's total of 15.49%. Green's walk rate of 10.0% represents a small upgrade from last year's horrendous 6.6% but still below average. Strikeout and walk rate are the most predictive convential statistics when translating college to pro success. Grant Green struggles in both of these areas.
Using my database of all Top 50 college draft picks since 2001, only one player has walked under 10.0% of the time during his sophomore and junior years and had MLB success. That person also happens to be a player Green is often compared to, former Long Beach State shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Tulowitzki is also one of only two players to be first round picks and score under 480 in my college ranking system. If Green is a +20 defender who will get a massive boost from his home park, then he'll be worth a top 10 pick.
Despite being overrated early in the draft process, Grant Green is still a solid prospect -- likely a first rounder. He still has power, athleticism and upside that are rare for the position. A large part of his value is tied to his glove, if he can be a plus defender at short he's a reasonable gamble to be a league average player for the position with his bat. If he's a sub-par defender, or has to move off the position, his bat is unlikely to make up for it. Opinions have been mixed on Green's defensive ability this year. He does still have upside but Green is more of a high risk/high reward kind of prospect than some of the other elite college hitters in this draft class. Right now, he's a marginal first rounder in a weak draft who could still be overvalued due to positional scarsity. While there's still a lot of time between now and the draft, Green would have to show massive improvment at the plate, make better contact and draw more walks in order to be an early first rounder in our books. “
Baseball Draft Report - http://baseballdraftreport.com/2009/06/05/mock-draft-3-0/
“1.12 Kansas City: SS Grant Green – Southern California
You know who I hate? That guy who has to quote himself to show off just how right he was. More often than not, he just happened to stumble into being right just one lousy time, but that guy, you know that guy, will harp on his success until everybody has heard him twice over. You have to know where this is heading, right? From February 2, 2009:
The Grant Green as a special Troy Tulowitzki/Evan Longoria hybrid model comp that I’ve heard makes little to no sense to me, but that’s in no way an indictment of Green’s abilities. Just because you don’t measure up to Tulowitzki and Longoria doesn’t mean you aren’t a fine player in your own right. However, it is fair to say that Green has a long way to go to reach the level of either prospect. In fact, I believe that Grant Green has more to play for this upcoming season than any other college prospect. With a good spring, he goes second to Seattle. If he struggles –and it’s not out of the question for a guy with a less than inspiring walk rate to have a letdown season as pitchers begin to adjust their approach — then he come slip down the board. Of course, even with an off junior season he would still be the premier middle infield prospect by a large margin and a very desirable prospect.
A recap, based entirely on things we absolutely know: Green did not have a good spring and therefore will not be heading to Seattle. He did struggle, so it is now very likely he will slip down the board. He did have an off junior season, but he is still the best draft-eligible middle infielder by a wide margin, so teams picking early in the first will still kick the tires on him. The Royals, a team reportedly hot on the trail of all kinds of up-the-middle college defenders, could be the team to drive him off the lot.
I have a bit of a problem with not letting go some of the longstanding comps I come up with even after they have passed their point of relevancy, but, darnit, I still think Green looks like a rich man’s Jason Donald. “
"...but he is similar to Tulowitzki in his defensive skills and playmaking ability. He has excellent range, outstanding hands and the smooth and fluid actions of a possible Gold Glove defender. Green has a fine arm, though not quite the cannon Tulowitzki possesses. He's faster than either Longoria or Tulowitzki, frequently clocking in the 6.6-second range over 60 yards. While he doesn't profile as an offensive powerhouse, he should become a long-term middle-infield fixture, a solid .280-plus big league hitter who may produce 15-20 home runs annually."
USS Mariner - http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/10/strasburg-alternative-no-1-grant-green/
“…Scott Pickler, who coached Green on the Cape two years ago and coached against his team last year, was impressed with what he saw.
“I thought he was the best player on the Cape this year,” Pickler said. “He’s going to drive the ball. I think he’s going to be a big-time guy. He’s got to get a little more consistent defensively—he loses focus out there sometimes—but he’s got enough range to stay at shortstop. He profiles right with the guys that I’ve seen that have made the jump. He’s one of the better ones I’ve seen out there, tools-wise.”
Pickler is not alone with those beliefs.
“I thought he was the best player in conference last year, and there were a lot of first-round guys there,” a Pac-10 coach said. “Unfortunately, he’s still in our league.”
The coach agreed with Pickler, saying that Green has the range to stay at shortstop but added that, if he needs to move off the position, he has the bat and the arm strength to play third base.
“I think the one thing that I like about him is that he doesn’t seem to have a ton of weaknesses,” the coach said. “He has all the tools in the world. He just has to be consistent and show up every day. I think the more he plays, the better he’ll get. I have every reason to believe he’ll be in the big leagues someday.”
He won’t come cheaply, however. Like Strasburg, Green is advised by Scott Boras, but if he puts together an impressive junior season, he’ll be worth the price. Five-tool shortstops don’t grow on trees and there’s a part of me that believes Green could actually end up being better than Strasburg."
Camden Depot – http://www.camdendepot.com/2009draft_scoutingreport_greengr.html
"Frame:Green has a lean, athletic build and stands to thicken a little more as he moves on to pro ball. He has easy movements and shows excellent body control at short. He's athletic enough that he should still be able to stick at shortstop even if he adds some weight (though ultimately it will likely be his range that determines whether he's a six-spot in the long run). His long, fluid motions probably play better on the pivots and around the bag from the shortstop side than they would from second.
Swing: Load – Green slides his hands from tight on his shoulder back into a solid hitting position (at times a little far back, but not prohibitively so). He also loads with a slight shoulder turn in, closing his front side and adding a little more potential torque in his rotation. He sets with a soft toe on his lead foot, widening his stance in prep for his weight transfer. He's around an ideal 60/40 weight distro.
Stride: Green's stride is almost non-existent, essentially consisting of a dropping of his heel from his soft toe plant in the load. As he begins his weight transfer forward, he keeps a quiet head and his hands stay tied to his body keeping a short path to the ball. He has a tendency to start his hips backwards (towards the dugout) as he enters his hip rotation, which allows some of his force to escape rather than be pushed towards the pitcher and the ball. It's a subtle movement that should be correctable, but it means he may be leaving some power on the table right now.
Swing: Green keeps a very compact stroke and shows good bat speed on a short path to the ball. He's generally clean from hips to knob to elbow to barrel. His head is very quiet throughout his whole swing, and there's very little extra movement throughout. There's solid torque in his rotation that, combined with his compact swing, could produce plus power at the professional level.
Contact: Green is well-balanced with a straight line running from his helmet down his torso, thigh and out of his knee. He generates good power and maintains his steady head, down on the bat to contact (which helps him to center the ball on the barrel). Aside from the bit of momentum lost when his hips bail early in his stride, Green does an excellent job of focusing his force to and through the ball.
Follow-through: Green has a clean one-handed release at the end of his swing, but essentially maintains two hands throughout. He stays under control and balanced to completion, and is easy enough in his follow-through to make sure his swing isn't cut short, regardless of the quadrant in which he's making contact.
Swing Summary: Green has solid swing mechanics, with a slight imperfection occasionally surfacing in his hip movement. Given his frame, his compact swing and solid torque, Green should be producing more power than we've seen. The good news is much of this may be attributable to his early-season approach. By pressing early on, Green may simply be hitting bad balls, making it difficult to consistently square-up. Over the first couple of weeks of conference play, Green was much better at letting the game come to him and began to drive the ball more regularly. A lot of his power is still to the pull side, but he has shown an ability to take the ball the other way. As he refines his approach, he should be capable of driving balls to all fields.
Baseball Beginnings - http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/04/14/grant-green-report/
PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION: Tall and lean frame with long loose limbs. Has an athletic body with large hands and feet. A big man with good body control. Runs with long, graceful strides.
STRENGTHS: Polished amateur spray hitter with inside-out approach, capable of producing above-average major league average and slightly-above average power. Handsy swing generates above-average bat speed. Still head and balance, bat head does not drag, bat stays in hitting zone, shows plate coverage, good rhythmic hitter, good load and trigger. Hands stay back at swing and at take. Short strider, firm front side, keeps foundation. Defensively, soft hands, average arm, average release, average range, will field what he gets to. Heady player whose instincts will help him maximize physical skills.
WEAKNESSES: Must get physically stronger and continue to develop more consistent all-fields power approach. Still getting comfortable in new swing adapted late in amateur career. Won’t have immediate pure power for corner infield position and must continue to develop pitch selection. Defensively, AVG arm for 3B, AVG range for SS, could play both, but might be best suited as offensive-oriented 2B.
SUMMARY: Very desirable amateur product because of his bat; a good enough athlete to make it work in the infield, suitable arm, hands and athleticism. A frame to add muscle later on, but should be conscious not to lose flexibility. Reminds me of Rangers’ Michael Young.
Grades (Present/Future)
Hit 40/65
Power 40/55
Run 50/50
Arm 45/50
Field 40/50
Add one OFP point for athleticism, instincts and work ethic.Overall Future Potential: 55
MLB. Com - http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=green
Hitting ability:
"Green got off to a slow start in 2009 and was striking out more than usual. He was chasing pitches and getting himself out. He's started to come around though, hitting balls in the gap with his inside-out swing.
Power:
He does have it -- he's capable of turning on an inside pitch and driving it -- but he has more of a line-drive stroke that shoots balls in the right and left-center field gaps. He could be a 15-20 homer guy down the road.
Running speed:
When he's going full-tilt, he's got solid-average to plus speed and can really get down the line.
Base running:
He is a little bit low energy at times, but does turn it up when he wants to.
Arm strength:
He's got a solid-average to plus arm which is very accurate.
Fielding:
Has good glove action, though like with his hitting, he struggled early, making uncharacteristic errors.
Range:
He's a little better to his right than up the middle, making the play in the hole better than the one to his glove side. But he's capable of making all the plays.
Physical Description:
Green is lean and wiry with an athletic frame and strong wrists. He has some room to get stronger as he matures.
Medical Update:
An ankle injury on the Sunday of the series with UCLA forced him to miss a Tuesday doubleheader, but he was back at short the following weekend.
Strengths:
He has five-tool potential at a premium position. He's capable of hitting for average and a little power while playing a fine shortstop.
Weaknesses:
He can be a little low energy and has frustrated some at times with a perceived lack of effort.
Summary:
Premier college shortstops don't come around all that often and when they do, they get drafted early. That should be the case for Green, who has the potential to shine on both sides of the ball with all five tools. He shook off some early struggles to perform up to expectations, though his lack of energy at times has bothered scouts. Even with that, he's a confident and accomplished college player who shouldn't wait long to hear his name called."
MLB-Draft.com - http://www.mlb-draft.com/Top-Prospects-2009.php
"#8... Grant Green, SS, 6' 3-185, USC, DOB- 9/27/87 (21)Someone had to be fifth... Green has tools that scouts love, and is a potential 5-tool talent. He is a good hitter that had shown above average wood-bat power, but confounded scouts with just 4 HR's this year. Green did fight through a few minor injuries early and had a sore shoulder at the end of his Cape Cod season (in which he was the league's MVP). His defensive is shaky, but his arm and range are good and he should stick at SS. If one buys into his Cape Cod efforts more so that his uneven play this college season, he profiles as a solid defender at short with good speed and an above average bat at a prime position."
Project Prospect - http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2009/04/07/how-good-a-draft-prospect-is-green
”Grant Green entered the year as one of the elite prospects for the 2009 Draft. Thought of as a Top 5 talent by every major evaluator, the USC shortstop has had an up and down junior season and generally failed to meet expectations. Praise for Green was not hard to come by before the season started.
On Februray 6th, John Manuel of Baseball America said the following in a chat when asked about Green, "I'd say he's the favorite for the No. 2 spot."
Jim Callis (same chat) responded to a question about Green versus Tim Beckham, "I think Green has more power and upside with the bat, while Beckham is more athletic and more of a pure shortstop. When guys are close, I tend to go with the one who has proven himself vs. tougher competition, so I'll take Green by just a hair."
I had Green as my No. 3 overall prospect, calling him an, "Athletic true shortstop w/ power (.254 IsoP), 35/15 K/BB must improve, likely will." For all the preseason praise, Grant Green needed a breakout season in 2009 in order to justify the aggressive rankings. Coming off of a productive 2008 season in which he showed good power, reasonable contact ability, and was strong in the Cape (top 5 in nearly every major offensive category), he looked ready for a breakout. So far, that hasn't quite happened.
Through 110 plate appearances, Green is hitting .375/.455/.552 with 11 walks and 22 strikeouts. Green's triple slash scores have been buoyed by a recent 17-for-39 stretch that has raised his average and OBP by over 100 points. However, of those 17 hits only five went for extra bases. Green now boasts a completely rediculous BABIP of .472. To put that number in perspective, the average BABIP in the Pac-10 this year is .333, with the confrenece batting average being .278. His recent hot streak is too singles and luck driven to be real. If we adjust his numbers to even a .400 BABIP is overall line drops to .322/.403/.529, assuming you only take away singles. If we give him a confrence average BABIP Green would only be hitting .270/.351/.478.
Green's zone judgement remains a red flag. He has struck out 20.0% of the time this year, showing a massive increase from last year's total of 15.49%. Green's walk rate of 10.0% represents a small upgrade from last year's horrendous 6.6% but still below average. Strikeout and walk rate are the most predictive convential statistics when translating college to pro success. Grant Green struggles in both of these areas.
Using my database of all Top 50 college draft picks since 2001, only one player has walked under 10.0% of the time during his sophomore and junior years and had MLB success. That person also happens to be a player Green is often compared to, former Long Beach State shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Tulowitzki is also one of only two players to be first round picks and score under 480 in my college ranking system. If Green is a +20 defender who will get a massive boost from his home park, then he'll be worth a top 10 pick.
Despite being overrated early in the draft process, Grant Green is still a solid prospect -- likely a first rounder. He still has power, athleticism and upside that are rare for the position. A large part of his value is tied to his glove, if he can be a plus defender at short he's a reasonable gamble to be a league average player for the position with his bat. If he's a sub-par defender, or has to move off the position, his bat is unlikely to make up for it. Opinions have been mixed on Green's defensive ability this year. He does still have upside but Green is more of a high risk/high reward kind of prospect than some of the other elite college hitters in this draft class. Right now, he's a marginal first rounder in a weak draft who could still be overvalued due to positional scarsity. While there's still a lot of time between now and the draft, Green would have to show massive improvment at the plate, make better contact and draw more walks in order to be an early first rounder in our books. “
Baseball Draft Report - http://baseballdraftreport.com/2009/06/05/mock-draft-3-0/
“1.12 Kansas City: SS Grant Green – Southern California
You know who I hate? That guy who has to quote himself to show off just how right he was. More often than not, he just happened to stumble into being right just one lousy time, but that guy, you know that guy, will harp on his success until everybody has heard him twice over. You have to know where this is heading, right? From February 2, 2009:
The Grant Green as a special Troy Tulowitzki/Evan Longoria hybrid model comp that I’ve heard makes little to no sense to me, but that’s in no way an indictment of Green’s abilities. Just because you don’t measure up to Tulowitzki and Longoria doesn’t mean you aren’t a fine player in your own right. However, it is fair to say that Green has a long way to go to reach the level of either prospect. In fact, I believe that Grant Green has more to play for this upcoming season than any other college prospect. With a good spring, he goes second to Seattle. If he struggles –and it’s not out of the question for a guy with a less than inspiring walk rate to have a letdown season as pitchers begin to adjust their approach — then he come slip down the board. Of course, even with an off junior season he would still be the premier middle infield prospect by a large margin and a very desirable prospect.
A recap, based entirely on things we absolutely know: Green did not have a good spring and therefore will not be heading to Seattle. He did struggle, so it is now very likely he will slip down the board. He did have an off junior season, but he is still the best draft-eligible middle infielder by a wide margin, so teams picking early in the first will still kick the tires on him. The Royals, a team reportedly hot on the trail of all kinds of up-the-middle college defenders, could be the team to drive him off the lot.
I have a bit of a problem with not letting go some of the longstanding comps I come up with even after they have passed their point of relevancy, but, darnit, I still think Green looks like a rich man’s Jason Donald. “
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Thoughts on Brian Matusz, Gordon Beckham, and the O's 2009 Draft
Brian Matusz had his 11th start for the Frederick Keys last night.
For the year, Matusz is 4-2, with a 2.16 era. In 66.2 innings, he has allowed 56 hits, 21 walks, and has 75 k's.
In his last 4 starts he has gone:
June 5th - 6 innings, 5 hits, 0 er, 1 bb, 6 k's
May 31st - 7 innings, 5 hits, 0 er, 1 bb, 4 k's
May 26th - 7 innings, 4 hits, 0 er, 2 bb's, 5 k's
May 20th - 7 innings, 4 hits, 3 er, 1 bb, 9 k's
= 27 innings, 18 hits, 3 er, 5 bb's, 19 k's.
He is not being challenged at this point, so he should be moved-up to AA Bowie.
Keeping him in the Carolina League will pad his stats, but I do not see how it can further aid his development.
He was drafted last year because of his ability to throw multiple pitches for strikes, and with his college background - was described as the most advanced pitcher in the 2008 draft.
I get the feeling the O's plan on handling his ascension similar to Wieters. Meaning he will be in Bowie sooner than later, and will start 2010 in AAA.
Whenever I think about Matusz, I have tended to also think about Gordon Beckham; as I advocated the O's drafting Beckham last year over Matusz.
It was not that I had something against Matusz; it was more of philosophical argument.
I thought it was a better allocation of resources to take the bat vs the arm, based on some historical evidence that says 1st round college bats are more likely to succeed vs college arms.
The O's obviously did not think they were equal or near equal talents… and had to have viewed Matusz as the one with higher-upside, and presumably a better-bet.
My thought then, and now is that I respect the fact that Orioles Scouting Director Joe Jordan made the decision for the player he thought was better… I respect him for stating, "We did not have a Matusz in the system."
I look forward to watching their careers progress, and determine if Jordan made the right-call… If he did, I'll give him all the credit for doing so… If he did not, I will still respect him for making what he thought was the right call… My own opinion has not changed; I think Beckham should have been the choice.
This past week, Beckham made his Major League debut with the Chicago White-Sox. If Beckham can have already made it to the show, than moving Matusz to AA should not be seen as rushing his development.
I think the lessons from last-year, frame an interesting discussion for the Orioles 2009 1st round selection.
If you took Brian Matusz, who was described as the most-advanced college pitcher in the draft, and you started him at Single A Frederick.... where would the Organization start a Matzek or a Wheeler if they selected either out of High-school this year?
Likely, if Matzek or Wheeler signed early enough they would get some time at Aberdeen to end 2009, and start 2010 in Delmarva.
If the organization has reservations about advancing a pitcher who dominated college, and is allowing less than a hit per IP, with more than a K per IP... they will not be in any hurry to advance Matzek or Wheeler through the organization.
For the record, I would agree with that. It will be a significant jump for either pitcher to the professional ranks, and waiting 2-3 years for them to at-least AA should be expected.
I think Brian Matusz is going to be a very solid Major League starter. I have looked at a fair-amount of video and scouting reports on Matzek, and Wheeler recently and like them both.
I do not see how an organization that lacks the overall resources of NY and Boston, gambles on those arms so far away.
I do not see how it is a better investment of resources for the organization to draft them, vs drafting Grant Green.
Green might not follow Beckham's path and be in the Majors 1 year from now, but Green is a lot more project able, and more likely to help the organization vs the high-school arms that the O's might consider taking.
For the year, Matusz is 4-2, with a 2.16 era. In 66.2 innings, he has allowed 56 hits, 21 walks, and has 75 k's.
In his last 4 starts he has gone:
June 5th - 6 innings, 5 hits, 0 er, 1 bb, 6 k's
May 31st - 7 innings, 5 hits, 0 er, 1 bb, 4 k's
May 26th - 7 innings, 4 hits, 0 er, 2 bb's, 5 k's
May 20th - 7 innings, 4 hits, 3 er, 1 bb, 9 k's
= 27 innings, 18 hits, 3 er, 5 bb's, 19 k's.
He is not being challenged at this point, so he should be moved-up to AA Bowie.
Keeping him in the Carolina League will pad his stats, but I do not see how it can further aid his development.
He was drafted last year because of his ability to throw multiple pitches for strikes, and with his college background - was described as the most advanced pitcher in the 2008 draft.
I get the feeling the O's plan on handling his ascension similar to Wieters. Meaning he will be in Bowie sooner than later, and will start 2010 in AAA.
Whenever I think about Matusz, I have tended to also think about Gordon Beckham; as I advocated the O's drafting Beckham last year over Matusz.
It was not that I had something against Matusz; it was more of philosophical argument.
I thought it was a better allocation of resources to take the bat vs the arm, based on some historical evidence that says 1st round college bats are more likely to succeed vs college arms.
The O's obviously did not think they were equal or near equal talents… and had to have viewed Matusz as the one with higher-upside, and presumably a better-bet.
My thought then, and now is that I respect the fact that Orioles Scouting Director Joe Jordan made the decision for the player he thought was better… I respect him for stating, "We did not have a Matusz in the system."
I look forward to watching their careers progress, and determine if Jordan made the right-call… If he did, I'll give him all the credit for doing so… If he did not, I will still respect him for making what he thought was the right call… My own opinion has not changed; I think Beckham should have been the choice.
This past week, Beckham made his Major League debut with the Chicago White-Sox. If Beckham can have already made it to the show, than moving Matusz to AA should not be seen as rushing his development.
I think the lessons from last-year, frame an interesting discussion for the Orioles 2009 1st round selection.
If you took Brian Matusz, who was described as the most-advanced college pitcher in the draft, and you started him at Single A Frederick.... where would the Organization start a Matzek or a Wheeler if they selected either out of High-school this year?
Likely, if Matzek or Wheeler signed early enough they would get some time at Aberdeen to end 2009, and start 2010 in Delmarva.
If the organization has reservations about advancing a pitcher who dominated college, and is allowing less than a hit per IP, with more than a K per IP... they will not be in any hurry to advance Matzek or Wheeler through the organization.
For the record, I would agree with that. It will be a significant jump for either pitcher to the professional ranks, and waiting 2-3 years for them to at-least AA should be expected.
I think Brian Matusz is going to be a very solid Major League starter. I have looked at a fair-amount of video and scouting reports on Matzek, and Wheeler recently and like them both.
I do not see how an organization that lacks the overall resources of NY and Boston, gambles on those arms so far away.
I do not see how it is a better investment of resources for the organization to draft them, vs drafting Grant Green.
Green might not follow Beckham's path and be in the Majors 1 year from now, but Green is a lot more project able, and more likely to help the organization vs the high-school arms that the O's might consider taking.
Baseball Beginnings Scouting Report on Grant Green
An interesting scouting report on Grant Green, provided by Baseball Beginnings.
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/04/14/grant-green-report/
Again, I see a lot of the same comments (positive and negative) that existed last year with Gordon Beckham.
Beckham made his Major League debut this week for the Chicago White Sox.
Baseball Beginnings also included a Q&A with Green, along with video.
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/03/23/qa-with-usc-shortstop-grant-green/
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/04/15/grant-green-scoutingvideo/
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/04/07/cole-green-video/
I found the Q&A an interesting read, which revealed a bit about his character.
Green remains the preferred selection of Baltimore Sports and Life for the Orioles 1st round pick.
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/04/14/grant-green-report/
Again, I see a lot of the same comments (positive and negative) that existed last year with Gordon Beckham.
Beckham made his Major League debut this week for the Chicago White Sox.
Baseball Beginnings also included a Q&A with Green, along with video.
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/03/23/qa-with-usc-shortstop-grant-green/
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/04/15/grant-green-scoutingvideo/
http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/04/07/cole-green-video/
I found the Q&A an interesting read, which revealed a bit about his character.
Green remains the preferred selection of Baltimore Sports and Life for the Orioles 1st round pick.
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