The New York Yankees won their 27th World Title tonight, and even though I hate the Yankees more than the Pittsburgh Steelers, Duke Blue Devils, Boston RedSox, and North Carolina Tar Heels combined; I really do not care.
All that matters to me as an Oriole fan, is that Baltimore continues on their recent path of constructing a franchise with a legitimate future.
The Yankees (and RedSox) are always going to be strong-teams. That does not mean they will win every post-season, but the revenue those two franchises generate, will allow them to compete every-year. It allows them to build an internal-infrastructure, and the depth, the guarantees 90+ regular-season wins.
That is the reality of the American League East. For the Baltimore Orioles to contend for the playoffs, they have to be constructed to be as good as any team in baseball.
I continue to believe the O's are going to go from 64 wins in 2009, to 81 wins in 2010.
I continue to believe the O's will be a legitimate post-season contender in the 2011 season.
Part of me is glad that New York, and Boston will continue to stay strong, as it will be more enjoyable for the O's to take division titles from those teams at their best.
Luckily, the pieces to contend and compete against anyone are beginning to take shape for the Oriole franchise.
The Yanks have their 27th title, and will contend again next-season. As an Oriole fan, you can not worry about that now. The only concern should be the progression from now, to the O's 4th World Title.
I am anxious for the future of the O's, and Spring Training 2010 can not come soon enough.
Showing posts with label Major League Baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Major League Baseball. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Ortiz and Ramirez tested positive for Steroids in 2003
It was reported today that David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez tested positive for Steroids in 2003.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Apbx96KQJxGyJj6CMx8u51sRvLYF?slug=ge-mannyortiz073009&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
I am tired about the Steroid talk in baseball, but this does matter, and can not be ignored. While I object to only some names being released from the listing of the 104 players who tested positive - to what was supposed to be an anonymous test - I am glad that the names continue to come to light.
Baseball more than any other game is a game built on stats. Positive steroid results do not say the players that used steroids lacked incredible skills, but it does put into question all of their achievements.
People who do not care about steroids often say that steroids do not give you hand and eye coordination, but that is not the point.Steroids do help you get bigger, stronger, leaner... which increases bat-speed, which is how power is generated.
If you hit 5 homeruns a year, which would have previously been fly-outs, that now make their way over the wall, that is a discernable difference to career stats over-time.
Maybe the question of being able to compare historical eras of baseball is overblown; after all Babe Ruth never had to fly across the country, or face African-American players, or Latin players, or Asian players.... (On the other-hand, he did have to travel by train, and was facing less teams)... so maybe I can get past the idea of what positive Steroid results do to the game historically.
However, it is hard to know what numbers from the last 25 years are legit.
Bonds, Rodriguez, and Manny are all-time great players. Ortiz is one of the best players of this era. Bonds had already won 3 MVP awards with Pittsburgh, before there is any evidence of him using steroids.You can not question his skill. What you can question though, are his accomplishments.
As Tom Boswell illustrated in his tremendous Dec 2004 article, ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A33704-2004Dec3.html ) before Bonds hooked up with his old friend and alleged steroid merchant Greg Anderson in '98, he had 411 homers in 6,621 at-bats, one per 16.1 at-bats. The next two years, as he acquired and adjusted to a new body, he hit 83 in 835 at-bats, one per 10 at-bats. In the four seasons of 2001 through 2004, from ages 37 to 40, Bonds hit 209 home runs in 1,642 at bats -- one every 7.9 at-bats.In those four years, Bonds won four straight National League most valuable player awards, two batting titles and set the all-time single-season records for home runs, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, walks and intentional walks.You do not get bigger and stronger in your late 30's. You do not reach another-level of ability, if left to natural devices.You do not achieve those numbers, without the aid of Steroids.Bonds on his own would have continued to put up strong numbers... but not the numbers he did.He cheated, and he tarnished his legacy, and he hurt the legitimacy of the game.
What hurt about ARod, is that you believed he had a chance to beat Bonds HR record, and restore legitimacy to that record.What you found out in February, is that he can not.People deserve second-chances, and if ARod has been clean since, good for him.What I would advocate for him, is to wipe-away his numbers and MVP award from the 2003 season, and provide regular samples going forward.That is the only way, which I believe you will be able to look back at his career, and believe in the numbers he posted.
Otherwise, ARod figures to ultimately be best remembered for the comments he made to Katie Couric in the YouTube link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVcqLt9sJLs
What hurts about Manny, and Ortiz is that they were the heart of the Boston lineup that won World-Titles in 2004, and 2007. That is not a personal title that is tainted, but championships.
They tarnished the game, and their reputations should pay the price.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Apbx96KQJxGyJj6CMx8u51sRvLYF?slug=ge-mannyortiz073009&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
I am tired about the Steroid talk in baseball, but this does matter, and can not be ignored. While I object to only some names being released from the listing of the 104 players who tested positive - to what was supposed to be an anonymous test - I am glad that the names continue to come to light.
Baseball more than any other game is a game built on stats. Positive steroid results do not say the players that used steroids lacked incredible skills, but it does put into question all of their achievements.
People who do not care about steroids often say that steroids do not give you hand and eye coordination, but that is not the point.Steroids do help you get bigger, stronger, leaner... which increases bat-speed, which is how power is generated.
If you hit 5 homeruns a year, which would have previously been fly-outs, that now make their way over the wall, that is a discernable difference to career stats over-time.
Maybe the question of being able to compare historical eras of baseball is overblown; after all Babe Ruth never had to fly across the country, or face African-American players, or Latin players, or Asian players.... (On the other-hand, he did have to travel by train, and was facing less teams)... so maybe I can get past the idea of what positive Steroid results do to the game historically.
However, it is hard to know what numbers from the last 25 years are legit.
Bonds, Rodriguez, and Manny are all-time great players. Ortiz is one of the best players of this era. Bonds had already won 3 MVP awards with Pittsburgh, before there is any evidence of him using steroids.You can not question his skill. What you can question though, are his accomplishments.
As Tom Boswell illustrated in his tremendous Dec 2004 article, ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A33704-2004Dec3.html ) before Bonds hooked up with his old friend and alleged steroid merchant Greg Anderson in '98, he had 411 homers in 6,621 at-bats, one per 16.1 at-bats. The next two years, as he acquired and adjusted to a new body, he hit 83 in 835 at-bats, one per 10 at-bats. In the four seasons of 2001 through 2004, from ages 37 to 40, Bonds hit 209 home runs in 1,642 at bats -- one every 7.9 at-bats.In those four years, Bonds won four straight National League most valuable player awards, two batting titles and set the all-time single-season records for home runs, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, walks and intentional walks.You do not get bigger and stronger in your late 30's. You do not reach another-level of ability, if left to natural devices.You do not achieve those numbers, without the aid of Steroids.Bonds on his own would have continued to put up strong numbers... but not the numbers he did.He cheated, and he tarnished his legacy, and he hurt the legitimacy of the game.
What hurt about ARod, is that you believed he had a chance to beat Bonds HR record, and restore legitimacy to that record.What you found out in February, is that he can not.People deserve second-chances, and if ARod has been clean since, good for him.What I would advocate for him, is to wipe-away his numbers and MVP award from the 2003 season, and provide regular samples going forward.That is the only way, which I believe you will be able to look back at his career, and believe in the numbers he posted.
Otherwise, ARod figures to ultimately be best remembered for the comments he made to Katie Couric in the YouTube link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVcqLt9sJLs
What hurts about Manny, and Ortiz is that they were the heart of the Boston lineup that won World-Titles in 2004, and 2007. That is not a personal title that is tainted, but championships.
They tarnished the game, and their reputations should pay the price.
Friday, July 10, 2009
How much value exists with defensive stats in MLB?
I will say up-front, that it is quite possible I just do not know enough about defensive stats.
However, it seems to me that defensive stats are just poor.
The old-standard used for years has been Range Factor.
As I understand RF, it is Putouts + Assists x 9 divided by defensive innings played.
What is accounting for positioning? What about the players that have to 'cheat' a bit to help cover the player next to them? What about the players next to them that cover a ton of ground? What if you have pitching staff that either gets a lot of fly balls or a lot of grounders? What about park-effects?
The current most popular defensive statistic is probably Ultimate Zone Rating on FanGraphs.
Is there really value there? In 2008, Nick Markakis had a 12.1 Fielding Runs above Avg based on UZR. In 2009, Markakis has a - 9 Fielding Runs above Avg based on UZR.
Now, Markakis had 3 errors all of 2008, and has 3 errors already in 2009; but obviously that only tells so much.
He had 3 defensive double-plays in 2008 vs 0 defensive double-plays in 2009; but I believe UZR does not include double-plays.
He had 17 outfield assists in 2008, vs 8 so far in 2009.
The main difference appears to be put-outs. In 2008, Markakis had 1,367 defensive innings, and 314 put outs. In 2009, Markakis has 736.2 defensive innings, and 136 put outs.
Fangraphs shows the calculation of UZR as ARM+DPR+RngR+ErrR.
ARM (outfield arm runs): Outfielder’s get credit (plus or minus) depending on what the runners do on a hit or a fly ball out. A runner can stay put, advance, or get thrown out. A fielder will get credit not only if he throws out more than his share of runners, but also if he keeps more than his share of runners from advancing extra bases.
DPR (double play runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter.
RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.
ErrR (error runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.
What value can a defensive statistic have, if in 2008 Markakis had an ARM rating of 7.2, and now in 2009 it is 1.8?
In 2008 his RngR was 4.7, and now it is -10.8?
Are you kidding me? Even if Markakis is not getting to balls on the RF line quite as often as he did last year... the idea that his range has diminished that much in a year is a joke.
Maybe there are less fly balls, and less opportunities?
Maybe there are less runners on the bases overall, and less opportunities to keep a runner put?
Maybe Jones is covering more ground in CF?
Every series, we see the respect Markakis gets... opposing teams do not challenge him.
Balls that do get past him, he usually recovers quickly and makes a strong accurate throw to the cut-off, or the base ahead.
I am glad to listen to feed-back here of why I have this wrong.
I think defensive numbers can be used as a tool, but I think they are rather crude measurements, that provide rather minimal information overall.
However, it seems to me that defensive stats are just poor.
The old-standard used for years has been Range Factor.
As I understand RF, it is Putouts + Assists x 9 divided by defensive innings played.
What is accounting for positioning? What about the players that have to 'cheat' a bit to help cover the player next to them? What about the players next to them that cover a ton of ground? What if you have pitching staff that either gets a lot of fly balls or a lot of grounders? What about park-effects?
The current most popular defensive statistic is probably Ultimate Zone Rating on FanGraphs.
Is there really value there? In 2008, Nick Markakis had a 12.1 Fielding Runs above Avg based on UZR. In 2009, Markakis has a - 9 Fielding Runs above Avg based on UZR.
Now, Markakis had 3 errors all of 2008, and has 3 errors already in 2009; but obviously that only tells so much.
He had 3 defensive double-plays in 2008 vs 0 defensive double-plays in 2009; but I believe UZR does not include double-plays.
He had 17 outfield assists in 2008, vs 8 so far in 2009.
The main difference appears to be put-outs. In 2008, Markakis had 1,367 defensive innings, and 314 put outs. In 2009, Markakis has 736.2 defensive innings, and 136 put outs.
Fangraphs shows the calculation of UZR as ARM+DPR+RngR+ErrR.
ARM (outfield arm runs): Outfielder’s get credit (plus or minus) depending on what the runners do on a hit or a fly ball out. A runner can stay put, advance, or get thrown out. A fielder will get credit not only if he throws out more than his share of runners, but also if he keeps more than his share of runners from advancing extra bases.
DPR (double play runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter.
RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.
ErrR (error runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.
What value can a defensive statistic have, if in 2008 Markakis had an ARM rating of 7.2, and now in 2009 it is 1.8?
In 2008 his RngR was 4.7, and now it is -10.8?
Are you kidding me? Even if Markakis is not getting to balls on the RF line quite as often as he did last year... the idea that his range has diminished that much in a year is a joke.
Maybe there are less fly balls, and less opportunities?
Maybe there are less runners on the bases overall, and less opportunities to keep a runner put?
Maybe Jones is covering more ground in CF?
Every series, we see the respect Markakis gets... opposing teams do not challenge him.
Balls that do get past him, he usually recovers quickly and makes a strong accurate throw to the cut-off, or the base ahead.
I am glad to listen to feed-back here of why I have this wrong.
I think defensive numbers can be used as a tool, but I think they are rather crude measurements, that provide rather minimal information overall.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Fantastic article from The Hardball Times
Here are links to a fantastic two-part article from Dan Turkenkopf of The Hardball Times about the idea of waisting pitches.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-pitch-is-a-terrible-thing-to-waste-or-is-it-part-1/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-pitch-is-a-terrible-thing-to-waste-or-is-it-part-2/
Turkenkopf challenges a part of conventional and accepted baseball knowledge with a factual arguement.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-pitch-is-a-terrible-thing-to-waste-or-is-it-part-1/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-pitch-is-a-terrible-thing-to-waste-or-is-it-part-2/
Turkenkopf challenges a part of conventional and accepted baseball knowledge with a factual arguement.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
USA scores 3 in the 9th, comes back to beat Puerto Rico 6-5
Brian Roberts had a great at-bat, working out of an 0-2 hole to JC Romero, and singling up the middle.
It was the type of at-bat, that screams post-season esque baseball.... he then had a very important steal of 2nd base.
Watching the US team explode after the victory was a sight to see.
It was the type of at-bat, that screams post-season esque baseball.... he then had a very important steal of 2nd base.
Watching the US team explode after the victory was a sight to see.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Former LA Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta blogs on Pre-Arbitration Players
http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/2009/03/pre-arbitration-players.html
An extremely informative piece from Mr. DePodesta, the former LA GM.
DePodesta is probably best known for his time as the Asst. GM to Billy Beane in Oakland.
Currently, Mr. DePodesta is the Special Asst. to the GM, with San Diego.
People in Baltimore may remember, that he got his start in professional sports working for the Baltimore Stallions of the CFL.
An extremely informative piece from Mr. DePodesta, the former LA GM.
DePodesta is probably best known for his time as the Asst. GM to Billy Beane in Oakland.
Currently, Mr. DePodesta is the Special Asst. to the GM, with San Diego.
People in Baltimore may remember, that he got his start in professional sports working for the Baltimore Stallions of the CFL.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
World Baseball Classic
If you are a baseball fan, you have to love the WBC.... this event is only going to continue to grow... but the passion is found everywhere... except here in the States.
I caught some of the Korea/Japan game in Tokyo yesterday, and the scene was amazing even in a 14-2 blowout by Japan...
The US/Canada game in Toronto had 35-40k fans, and an in-game intensity that only comes from wearing your National uniform.... only had to watch the dugouts, and the base-running to see how much that game meant to the teams.... the US avenged the 2006 Classic lost to Canada.
My new favorite player is SS Jimmy Rollins, the 2007 National League MVP who was benched to start the game for Jeter... who said, you have to check your ego at the door, and do what is best for your team... this is for your Country.
If Canada had Francis, Bedard, Harden, and Dempster... they would be pretty stacked.
The Netherlands with the huge 3-2 upset win over the Dominican....
How about 4 hits for Pudge Rodriguez, including 2 homers for Puerto Rico, in their 7-0 win over Panama?
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200903073967715
The US vs Venezuela will be fun to watch today... here is a preview from MLB.com
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090307&content_id=3939134&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Also have to check out the Dominican vs Panama, as the DR attempts to hold-off elimination.
I caught some of the Korea/Japan game in Tokyo yesterday, and the scene was amazing even in a 14-2 blowout by Japan...
The US/Canada game in Toronto had 35-40k fans, and an in-game intensity that only comes from wearing your National uniform.... only had to watch the dugouts, and the base-running to see how much that game meant to the teams.... the US avenged the 2006 Classic lost to Canada.
My new favorite player is SS Jimmy Rollins, the 2007 National League MVP who was benched to start the game for Jeter... who said, you have to check your ego at the door, and do what is best for your team... this is for your Country.
If Canada had Francis, Bedard, Harden, and Dempster... they would be pretty stacked.
The Netherlands with the huge 3-2 upset win over the Dominican....
How about 4 hits for Pudge Rodriguez, including 2 homers for Puerto Rico, in their 7-0 win over Panama?
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200903073967715
The US vs Venezuela will be fun to watch today... here is a preview from MLB.com
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090307&content_id=3939134&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Also have to check out the Dominican vs Panama, as the DR attempts to hold-off elimination.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
What Teixeira should, and should not be booed for on Opening Day
On Opening Day, when Mark Teixeira is announced as a New York Yankee… he is going to be booed unmercifully by the Oriole Park faithful.
If I get tickets, and am in the crowd, I will be booing as loud as anyone.
If I do not get tickets, I will probably be booing at my TV.
However, I think many Orioles fans will be booing for the wrong reasons.
The right reason, is that Tex now plays for the New York Yankees… The wrong reason would be the idea that Tex 'spurned' Baltimore.
I am comfortable with where the O's are as an Organization, and am excited about the core-talent that is being assembled.
I believe the Orioles have assembled their most talented-team in over a decade, and are capable of playing slightly over their heads, and finishing at-least .500 for the first-time since 1997.
I believe the O's have the ability to a perennial contender, starting in 2010.
That said, I still have problems with how the O's handled the Teixeira negotiations.
If the O's had not wanted to do what was necessary to obtain Tex, they never should have entered the bidding. I would not have agreed with that, but I would have respected that. To placate the fanbase by telling them they understood how important Tex was… was wrong.
The Orioles offered Tex 7yrs $145M… $20.7M per year…. That is a large offer, no doubt about it.
However, The O's were told immediately it was not good enough, when Boras provided a counter-offer at the Winter Meetings.
If the O's were not going to counter Boras' counter, the organization should have used that provided opportunity to step out of the bidding… and say to the public… we made our best offer, and it was not good enough. Again, I would not have agreed with that approach… but I would have respected that. Instead, Baltimore Orioles General Manager Andy MacPhail told the press that the offer was flexible, and gave the impression that they would be making another offer.
I can respect the idea that our offer was flexible, and I can respect the idea that Mr. MacPhail believed he would have an opportunity to match any subsequently received offer.
Where I disagree with the O's approach, is that it when it was clear your offer was in-sufficient, and you were willing to go higher; than you never should have lost-out on Tex, without presenting your best offer.
There was talk that Mr.MacPhail did not want to get into a bidding war… you did not have to get into a bidding war to make your best offer, nothing precluded you from doing so.
My point with this, is that some of the anger towards Tex is misguided. The O's were the team coming off 11 straight losing seasons, and 68 wins in 2008. If the O's wanted him, they had to be the aggressor… they had to be offering at least equal, and realistically better money. Instead, the Orioles offered less years, and considerably less overall money.
Tex was open to being a Yankee… and he was open to being an Oriole. He took the far better offer, from the far better team. Mr. MacPhail was quoted as saying that it was too much money to invest in one player. The Yanks got him for 8/180… which equals $22.5M per year… the O's offered 7/145.. Which equals $20.7M per year… What the O's are effectively saying is that 1 more year, and $1.8M more per year, was too much to invest in one player.
That is hard to swallow.
In a lot of ways, the O's have already gotten past losing Tex… the franchise certainly retains a greater deal of payroll flexibility… has added a potential corner-stone in Pie.. Has extended Markakis, and Roberts… have seen the promise of their young-arms in Spring Training.
I am excited to see Brandon Snyder in AA this year, and would enjoy watching him progress to the Majors, and first-base with the O's in 2010 as a rookie.
There are a lot of positive things to note about the O's organization right now, and the focus should be looking ahead.
Looking backwards, and worrying about Tex accomplishes little… but the revisionist history that exists around town, saying Tex always wanted to be a Yankee, that the O's did everything right in the negotiations for him, and that the Orioles would not have resigned Markakis and Roberts if Tex had been signed - is wrong.
28 year-old Gold Glove caliber switch hitters, with a .917 career OPS, and hometown ties are not luxury-items that you can casually dismiss, and say you will do without.
As a non-luxury item, I would have liked the O's to have treated him as more of necessity.
On April 6th, boo Tex for being a fan of the over-rated 'Donnie Baseball,' (Don Mattingly)… boo Tex for being willing to come-home to Baltimore, wearing those horrible Yankee Road Greys… boo the fact the O's never made their best offer.
Do not boo Tex for taking the most money offered.
On the other-hand, maybe just follow the lead of these guys:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLWoZkm_6Xw
If I get tickets, and am in the crowd, I will be booing as loud as anyone.
If I do not get tickets, I will probably be booing at my TV.
However, I think many Orioles fans will be booing for the wrong reasons.
The right reason, is that Tex now plays for the New York Yankees… The wrong reason would be the idea that Tex 'spurned' Baltimore.
I am comfortable with where the O's are as an Organization, and am excited about the core-talent that is being assembled.
I believe the Orioles have assembled their most talented-team in over a decade, and are capable of playing slightly over their heads, and finishing at-least .500 for the first-time since 1997.
I believe the O's have the ability to a perennial contender, starting in 2010.
That said, I still have problems with how the O's handled the Teixeira negotiations.
If the O's had not wanted to do what was necessary to obtain Tex, they never should have entered the bidding. I would not have agreed with that, but I would have respected that. To placate the fanbase by telling them they understood how important Tex was… was wrong.
The Orioles offered Tex 7yrs $145M… $20.7M per year…. That is a large offer, no doubt about it.
However, The O's were told immediately it was not good enough, when Boras provided a counter-offer at the Winter Meetings.
If the O's were not going to counter Boras' counter, the organization should have used that provided opportunity to step out of the bidding… and say to the public… we made our best offer, and it was not good enough. Again, I would not have agreed with that approach… but I would have respected that. Instead, Baltimore Orioles General Manager Andy MacPhail told the press that the offer was flexible, and gave the impression that they would be making another offer.
I can respect the idea that our offer was flexible, and I can respect the idea that Mr. MacPhail believed he would have an opportunity to match any subsequently received offer.
Where I disagree with the O's approach, is that it when it was clear your offer was in-sufficient, and you were willing to go higher; than you never should have lost-out on Tex, without presenting your best offer.
There was talk that Mr.MacPhail did not want to get into a bidding war… you did not have to get into a bidding war to make your best offer, nothing precluded you from doing so.
My point with this, is that some of the anger towards Tex is misguided. The O's were the team coming off 11 straight losing seasons, and 68 wins in 2008. If the O's wanted him, they had to be the aggressor… they had to be offering at least equal, and realistically better money. Instead, the Orioles offered less years, and considerably less overall money.
Tex was open to being a Yankee… and he was open to being an Oriole. He took the far better offer, from the far better team. Mr. MacPhail was quoted as saying that it was too much money to invest in one player. The Yanks got him for 8/180… which equals $22.5M per year… the O's offered 7/145.. Which equals $20.7M per year… What the O's are effectively saying is that 1 more year, and $1.8M more per year, was too much to invest in one player.
That is hard to swallow.
In a lot of ways, the O's have already gotten past losing Tex… the franchise certainly retains a greater deal of payroll flexibility… has added a potential corner-stone in Pie.. Has extended Markakis, and Roberts… have seen the promise of their young-arms in Spring Training.
I am excited to see Brandon Snyder in AA this year, and would enjoy watching him progress to the Majors, and first-base with the O's in 2010 as a rookie.
There are a lot of positive things to note about the O's organization right now, and the focus should be looking ahead.
Looking backwards, and worrying about Tex accomplishes little… but the revisionist history that exists around town, saying Tex always wanted to be a Yankee, that the O's did everything right in the negotiations for him, and that the Orioles would not have resigned Markakis and Roberts if Tex had been signed - is wrong.
28 year-old Gold Glove caliber switch hitters, with a .917 career OPS, and hometown ties are not luxury-items that you can casually dismiss, and say you will do without.
As a non-luxury item, I would have liked the O's to have treated him as more of necessity.
On April 6th, boo Tex for being a fan of the over-rated 'Donnie Baseball,' (Don Mattingly)… boo Tex for being willing to come-home to Baltimore, wearing those horrible Yankee Road Greys… boo the fact the O's never made their best offer.
Do not boo Tex for taking the most money offered.
On the other-hand, maybe just follow the lead of these guys:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLWoZkm_6Xw
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Baltimore Sun reports Guthrie to the World Baseball Classic
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-guthrie-world-baseball-classic-217,0,5598498.story
Count me as at least one fan of the WBC.
Even with a number of stars sitting out, there are powerhouse teams to be found in the US, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, and Japan.
Beyond those teams, Cuba, Canada, Mexico, and Korea can all put out representative teams.
From an Orioles perspective, the concern is that WBC participants get thrown off their normal spring routine, and could be injured.
From the perspective of an Orioles fan, I am happy Guthrie is getting some of the recognition he deserves.
Count me as at least one fan of the WBC.
Even with a number of stars sitting out, there are powerhouse teams to be found in the US, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, and Japan.
Beyond those teams, Cuba, Canada, Mexico, and Korea can all put out representative teams.
From an Orioles perspective, the concern is that WBC participants get thrown off their normal spring routine, and could be injured.
From the perspective of an Orioles fan, I am happy Guthrie is getting some of the recognition he deserves.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Top 10 qualifications to run an organization
Here would be my Top 10 qualifications to run an organization… not in any particular order..
1) See the entire picture, pursue improvements in Scouting and Player Development
2) Be able to work in a matrixed organization, dealing with multiple relationships... up and down the chain..
3) Cultivate relationships
4) Develop people...
5) Put people (not just players) in positions where they can be successful...
6) Deal effectively with the media.... treat them with respect, give information that conveys organizational direction, without giving away trade secrets..
7) Knowledge of MLB rules...
8) Understanding of team building, and sharing credit
9) Economics / Business background
10) Respect for the game, and people involved... combined with overall knowledge
Myself, I would need to be refined... would need to spend time working in both Player Development and Scouting.... continue to improve my base knowledge.... finish an MBA and probably Law School as well....I could deal with the media just as effectively as MacPhail does now...... I have spent the past 5 years dealing with Corporations at a CFO level on a daily basis... providing Customer Service to them requires an ability to communicate effectively.
I work with extremely large policies, with a lot of contractual language... but realistically, I would need to surround myself with MLB Rules Experts (similar to what Ed Kenney was with the O's...) ... would need an internal staff of lawyers to review contracts, and provide language... which everyteam has...
I have been responsible for Pricing, Policy Structure/Underwriting, Problem Resolution, and Risk Management.... and feel comfortable I could operate within any provided budget... but ultimately would need someone like what Joe Foss was, or a Robert Ames is now as the CFO...
I would need to surround myself with people that had contradictory opinions, as I would look to build concensus, but ultimately willing to rule.
I know I could succeed, and I trully believe plenty of others currently outside of MLB could as well...
Unless I ever put myself in the position to get the opportunity to work within Baseball Operations, this is all just an educated guess... which sounds boastful and naive... I get that.
I really do respect what MacPhail and other executives have accomplished to reach their positions in the game... and while I do not believe their jobs are 'easy', I do not believe they have some secret knowledge, or that that their jobs are as difficult as some would have you believe.
1) See the entire picture, pursue improvements in Scouting and Player Development
2) Be able to work in a matrixed organization, dealing with multiple relationships... up and down the chain..
3) Cultivate relationships
4) Develop people...
5) Put people (not just players) in positions where they can be successful...
6) Deal effectively with the media.... treat them with respect, give information that conveys organizational direction, without giving away trade secrets..
7) Knowledge of MLB rules...
8) Understanding of team building, and sharing credit
9) Economics / Business background
10) Respect for the game, and people involved... combined with overall knowledge
Myself, I would need to be refined... would need to spend time working in both Player Development and Scouting.... continue to improve my base knowledge.... finish an MBA and probably Law School as well....I could deal with the media just as effectively as MacPhail does now...... I have spent the past 5 years dealing with Corporations at a CFO level on a daily basis... providing Customer Service to them requires an ability to communicate effectively.
I work with extremely large policies, with a lot of contractual language... but realistically, I would need to surround myself with MLB Rules Experts (similar to what Ed Kenney was with the O's...) ... would need an internal staff of lawyers to review contracts, and provide language... which everyteam has...
I have been responsible for Pricing, Policy Structure/Underwriting, Problem Resolution, and Risk Management.... and feel comfortable I could operate within any provided budget... but ultimately would need someone like what Joe Foss was, or a Robert Ames is now as the CFO...
I would need to surround myself with people that had contradictory opinions, as I would look to build concensus, but ultimately willing to rule.
I know I could succeed, and I trully believe plenty of others currently outside of MLB could as well...
Unless I ever put myself in the position to get the opportunity to work within Baseball Operations, this is all just an educated guess... which sounds boastful and naive... I get that.
I really do respect what MacPhail and other executives have accomplished to reach their positions in the game... and while I do not believe their jobs are 'easy', I do not believe they have some secret knowledge, or that that their jobs are as difficult as some would have you believe.
Teams should take on bad-contracts, to obtain the prospects they want
In Dec 2007, Dontrelle Willis signed a 3 year $29M deal with Detroit, meaning roughly $20M is left on that deal.
Horrible is too kind of a word to describe his 2008 season..
After being sent back to the minors, he was finally recalled in September. During 2008, he pitched a total of 18.2 Major League Innings ...
18.2 Innings, 14 hits, 32 walks, 13 k's, 3 hr's, 22er, a .909 OPS against - a 10.61 ERA.
In AAA, he was 3-1, 4.45 ERA, 28.1 IP, 34 hits, 20 k's, 14 walks, 2 homers, 298 BAA
2007 205.1 IP, 241 hits, 146 k's, 87 walks, 29 homers, .840 OPS against, 5.17 ERA.
2006 223.1 IP, 234 hits, 160 k's, 83 walks, 21 homers, .742 OPS against, 3.87 ERA.
2005 236.1 IP, 213 hits, 170 k's, 55 walks, 11 homers, .639 OPS against, 2.63 ERA.
So, each year you are seeing the innings decrease, the k's decrease, the walks increase, the homers, and OPS against increase… A lot of people thought he would experience a tough transition to the American League….. But nobody could have forcast a year as bad as his 2008…
Still, when ST starts in 2009 he will only be 27 years-old… even if he never approaches his 2005 season again, he can be a useful starter if he can basically be the 2006 and 2007 versions.
If I am an organization like the Orioles, I would be willing to consider taking on his contract, if the O's got prospects of value back from Detroit, and they traded nothing of value to obtain him...
SS Danny Worth http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/265467.html
(Baseball America rated him as the 8th best Detroit prospect to start 2008, best defensive inf)
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story...2/10/134646/64
(Sickels rated him as the 3rd best Detroit prospect to start 2008)
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...nnyworth.shtml (717 OPS in 295 AA at-bats as a 22 year old )
2b Scott Sizemore (Broke his wrist in July) http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/265467.html (BA rated him as the 3rd best Detroit prospect to start 2008, best hitter for avg, best strike-zone discipline)
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story...2/10/134646/64
(Sickels rated him as the 12th best Detroit prospect to start 2008)
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...Sizemore.shtml ( 774 OPS in 203 High A at-bats, as a 23 year-old )
My best guess on Willis is that 2005, and 2008 were extremes he will not touch again, and that 2006 and 2007 are him… if you look at those seasons, and then adjust for the American League… he can be a serviceable over-paid back of the rotation starter……. Might be worth if it you could get a couple of prospects with value back.
Horrible is too kind of a word to describe his 2008 season..
After being sent back to the minors, he was finally recalled in September. During 2008, he pitched a total of 18.2 Major League Innings ...
18.2 Innings, 14 hits, 32 walks, 13 k's, 3 hr's, 22er, a .909 OPS against - a 10.61 ERA.
In AAA, he was 3-1, 4.45 ERA, 28.1 IP, 34 hits, 20 k's, 14 walks, 2 homers, 298 BAA
2007 205.1 IP, 241 hits, 146 k's, 87 walks, 29 homers, .840 OPS against, 5.17 ERA.
2006 223.1 IP, 234 hits, 160 k's, 83 walks, 21 homers, .742 OPS against, 3.87 ERA.
2005 236.1 IP, 213 hits, 170 k's, 55 walks, 11 homers, .639 OPS against, 2.63 ERA.
So, each year you are seeing the innings decrease, the k's decrease, the walks increase, the homers, and OPS against increase… A lot of people thought he would experience a tough transition to the American League….. But nobody could have forcast a year as bad as his 2008…
Still, when ST starts in 2009 he will only be 27 years-old… even if he never approaches his 2005 season again, he can be a useful starter if he can basically be the 2006 and 2007 versions.
If I am an organization like the Orioles, I would be willing to consider taking on his contract, if the O's got prospects of value back from Detroit, and they traded nothing of value to obtain him...
SS Danny Worth http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/265467.html
(Baseball America rated him as the 8th best Detroit prospect to start 2008, best defensive inf)
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story...2/10/134646/64
(Sickels rated him as the 3rd best Detroit prospect to start 2008)
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...nnyworth.shtml (717 OPS in 295 AA at-bats as a 22 year old )
2b Scott Sizemore (Broke his wrist in July) http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/265467.html (BA rated him as the 3rd best Detroit prospect to start 2008, best hitter for avg, best strike-zone discipline)
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story...2/10/134646/64
(Sickels rated him as the 12th best Detroit prospect to start 2008)
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...Sizemore.shtml ( 774 OPS in 203 High A at-bats, as a 23 year-old )
My best guess on Willis is that 2005, and 2008 were extremes he will not touch again, and that 2006 and 2007 are him… if you look at those seasons, and then adjust for the American League… he can be a serviceable over-paid back of the rotation starter……. Might be worth if it you could get a couple of prospects with value back.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
