It is not often that a player can raise his OPS over 80pts from the previous-season, and people question the overall results; but that was the case for Adam Jones in his 2009 season.
Prior to the season, I projected Jones to have a .285 batting avg, 20 homers, 80 rbi. a .800 OPS, 45 walks, with 15 steals.
When Jones' season-ended on September 2nd, his numbers were .277, 19 homers, 70 rbi, .792 OPS, 36 walks, with 10 steals.
The .792 OPS was an .81 point improvement over the .711 OPS Jones posted in 2008.
The questions about his progress, came from O's fans who saw Jones struggle once the calendar turned to June.
I think you have to look a bit bigger-picture with this. Jones had a 1.062 OPS in April, and a .960 OPS in May. That was two-months of MVP caliber production from Jones, and was what earned him first All-Star appearance.
The fact that he had a mediocre July, sandwiched between abysmal June and Augusts might be disconcerting to some, but not to me.
During a 6 month-season, players get hot, and players get cold. Eventually, players usually find their career norms, or at-least where they currently are as a player.
As a team, and as a player; you are never quite as good as you look when things are going well, nor as bad as you look when things are going bad.
Jones turned 24 on August 1st. He was not ready as a player to produce like an MVP for an entire-season. The fact that he showed he could do that for 2 months, gives good reasons to be optimistic about his ceiling as a player going forward.
What I will want to see out of him in 2010, is the ability to avoid months of severe-valleys. It is one-thing to have months of struggle, but having two-months with an OPS under .620 is not acceptable for a player with his talent.
For that to be accomplished, Jones is again going to have to spend a winter working on his plate-discipline.
A 2010 season where Jones finishes with an .850 OPS, hitting 30 homers, and knocking-in 100 runs is within-reach.
Jones has all the tools necessary to be an exceptional defensive CF. When properly positioned, he gets good reads of the bat, and is able to effortlessly glide to the ball. His arm-strength in CF, is among the best in baseball.
The fact that Jones continues to want to play a very-shallow CF, is mostly ego. I understand he might want to take away some balls from dropping in under-neath, but mostly it is about his desire to show he can track-back and make regular SportsCenter caliber plays.
This needs to be addressed this off-season, with Jones, and the O's coaching-staff. You can not have Jones getting beat over-the-top once a week, again in 2010.
In some-circles, there is a desire for Felix Pie to replace Jones in CF, with Jones taking over LF, and Reimold moving to 1st or DH.
I am not ready to sign-off on that move, but another summer of watching Jones miss balls he would have had if properly positioned might change my opinion.
Again, I think everyone needs to take a deep-breath and remind their-selves that Jones just turned 24. He is several years away from him prime, and he is already a legitimate All-star. The future is bright for Mr. Jones.
Jones is not eligible for Free Agency until the 2014 season, but extending him long-term, would be my first-priority this Winter.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
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