Can '10 Matusz approach '92 Mussina?

The calendar has flipped to 2010, and the countdown to the arrival of pitchers and catchers has begun.

One of those pitchers will be Orioles left-hander Brian Matusz, who will be going into his second-full professional season, and his first-full season in the Majors.

My very minimal expectations are 170 innings, at an era of 4.50. At the high-end of my expectations is a 2010 season that resembles the 1992 season of Mike Mussina.

The 6'4, 200 lb Matusz was born February 11th, 1987.
Mussina was 6'2, 183 lb's, and born December 8th, 1968.

The right-handed Mussina had been drafted in the 1st round, 20th overall out of Stanford University in the 1990 draft. In 1991, he debuted in the Majors making his 12 initial starts.

During those starts, Mussina 4-5, with a 2.87 era. In 87.2 innings, he allowed 77 hits, with 52 k's, and 21 walks.

In '92, Mussina started his first full-season in the Majors at the age of 23. Pitching in the sparkling new Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Mussina was an impressive 18-5, with a 2.54 era. Sabermetrics of today would have cringed at his 241 innings, where he allowed just 212 hits, with 130 k's, and 48 walks.

Matusz was of course drafted in the 1st round, 4th overall out of the University of San Diego in the 2008 draft. In 2009, he debuted in the Majors making his 8 initial starts.

During those starts, Matusz was 5-2, with a 4.63 era. In 44.2 innings, he allowed 52 hits, 38 k's, with 14 walks.

In '10, Matusz will start his first full-season in the Majors at the age of 23.

ERA+ adjusts a pitcher's earned run average according to the pitcher's ballpark (in case the ballpark favors hitters or pitchers) and the ERA of the pitcher's league. Average ERA+ is set to be 100; a score above 100 indicates the pitcher performed better than average. Below 100 indicates worse than average.

Mussina's ERA+ in '91 was 138, and his ERA+ in '92 was 157 (the 2nd best mark for his career).

Matusz's ERA+ in '09 was just 97.

I think Matusz has a very good chance to end 2010 with an ERA+ that falls between Mussina's '91 and '92 seasons. I do not have an illusions of Matusz throwing 240 innings, with 8 Complete Games, and a 2.54 era.

What I think Matusz could be capable of this year is 190 innings, allowing less than a hit per inning-pitched, with nearly a k per inning. If he does that, I think it is quite possible that Matusz ends 2010 with 15-18 wins, and an era at around 3.85.

That might not be '92 Mussina, but it would be extremely impressive. It would likely earn Matusz the Rookie of the Year, and several other accolades as well.

I think the comparison between Matusz and Mussina is pretty apt. Not just due to both being 1st round selections, or spending their first-full season in the Majors at the same age; but due to other similarities such as their analytical way of approaching hitters, and the number of pitches they brought/bring to the mound.

What are your minimal and max expectations for Matusz this season?